"Herrmann said that the team’s research found that of the 90 percent of startups that fail, 70 percent scaled prematurely"
They must have had a strangely biased sample. Since the Bubble (when it was common) I've seen few startups do that. What kills startups is making something users don't want.
The way we've defined premature scaling, "making something users don't want" is included. For example, on the customer interaction metrics, which is what is used for "actual stage" a startup would be in the discovery or validation stages (stage 1 or 2). On the behavioral stage if they're making something people don't want, they're probably focused on streamlining their product or making it more scalable, which is a stage 3, or efficiency stage action. This would cause the startup to show up as a Behavioral Stage 3 / Actual Stage 2 and be labeled as premature scaling, just not the drastic kind, that for example WebVan exhibited — "Behavioral Stage 4 / Actual Stage 1". They had a team that was completely scaled up without even having shipped their product.
If this is meant to be academic research (and I get the feeling it is), then it's unlikely they'd be able to use words as they're ordinarily used. Terms used will have to be clearly defined and stated in order to avoid confusion and misinterpretation (unless you're suggesting that such definitions already exist).
Unfortunately, this doesn't make it easy to discuss things outside the research field.
I'm not sure how else they could term it if they want a consistent label for all stages. Colloquially, it would be "they got too big for their britches", but that doesn't come across well in a study.
It would probably be better, though, to have phase-specific terms. It would probably make it easier to identify with each phase.
Given the mention of Webvan and the sheer number of startups in their study, it would seem their sample group does include a significant cohort from the Bubble. Trying to derive generalized rules governing startup outcomes is tough when those rules inherently keep changing.
Webvan is the first example of failed startup in Steve Blank's Four Steps to Epiphany. I think Startup Genome project was heavily influenced by Blank's book, so it might just that, a familiar example, not a data point.
Using the term "scaling prematurely" is leaving the report open to misinterpretation: Since "scale" is one of their stated startup lifecycle stages.
In the report they use the term "consistent" which is less confusing and more descriptive of the symptoms of the "predominant" of failures. From the report....
"Consistent startups keep the customer dimension, the primary indicator of progress in a startup, in tune with product, team, financials and business model. This means that each dimension progresses evenly compared to the others. Inconsistent startups have one or more of these dimensions far ahead or far behind the customer dimension. Premature scaling is the predominant form of inconsistency, but its much rarer opposite, dysfunctional scaling is also
possible, although it’s not covered in this report."
They must have had a strangely biased sample. Since the Bubble (when it was common) I've seen few startups do that. What kills startups is making something users don't want.