I actually really agree with you. But- I don't think Japan can re-militarize without essentially declaring war on America. Part of the treaty we set up at the end of WWII and all.
Wait... Maybe that means the reason they are declining is because we neutered them...?
P.S. I suspect the reason your theory has not been explored much in public writings is because it has an implied support of continued military activity, funding and dominance, which is a very unpopular position in the US today. Ironically, probably because we reside exactly in the part of your described cycle corresponding with military decline!
> I don't think they can re-militarize without declaring war on America. Part of the treaty we set up at the end of WWII and all.
I think things have sufficiently changed since the 1940's that re-militarizing could happen without too much hostility, given good diplomacy with USA and China.
I actually think America would like another friendly military power in the Pacific.
It might lead to diplomatic tension, but there's like a 0% chance it'd lead to a declaration of war. They've got their hands way, way too full elsewhere.
What are they going to do with a military? Why not just go through Tokyo with a baseball bat and break as many windows as possible? That'll put people to work without risking the peace.
I don't disagree with your thesis that peaceful societies tend to amuse themselves to death, but I don't see how military spending is a magical way out of that trap, unless you go looking for trouble.
Wait... Maybe that means the reason they are declining is because we neutered them...?
P.S. I suspect the reason your theory has not been explored much in public writings is because it has an implied support of continued military activity, funding and dominance, which is a very unpopular position in the US today. Ironically, probably because we reside exactly in the part of your described cycle corresponding with military decline!