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The Law of Shitty Clickthroughs (2012) (andrewchen.com)
62 points by cwaffles on Oct 15, 2021 | hide | past | favorite | 60 comments



I sometimes think, that marketing is one of the worst thing that happened to us. It is constantly destroying all things that worked really well for us.

There were times when checking my mailbox (I mean physical one) was either important - taxes, administration, bills or fun - postcards from family and friends. Now it’s 99% spam. It’s not worth checking.

Email - the same. Mostly spam and shitty newsletters that will 'Teach you to Be Rich...'.

Professional press - instead of interesting and novel ideas and research we get sponsored junk just to sell services. Instead of honest reviews we get paid test winners. All mixed with just plain old full page commercials.

TV shows - instead of good story we get some unbelievable plots that are built only to excuse showing a sponsor car, cooking pots or some other junk.

Phone - few years ago a call from unknown number meant your kid was sick or you have missed something in your taxes. Now it's always spam, many times per day. I've already disabled all notifications from numbers out of my contact list.

Blogs - they used to be interesting or personal, now it's either commercial spam, worthless review/comparisons or a personal brand spam. Mostly written by cheap contractors with no experience in the field. I hope it get's replaced by GPT-3 soon.

The list is pretty long: - city full of ugly banners - loading screens in cash machines so you can see a commercial - commercials in movie theaters before and after the film - worthless books just to build personal brand or promote products - sidewalks full of flyers - free games for kids on mobile - web pages with popups - addictive social media practices - spam comments underneath articles and in forums - reddit communities full of spam

The list goes on.

If we give them more time they will find a way to destroy everything that's worth while for us. Well paid psychologists, instead of helping people will find a way to get to your brain with next junk you don't need while data scientists prepare more reports from our personal data. After that engineers will work hard to circumvent your ad blocker instead of adding new features, fixing performance or improving user experience.

Sorry, for the long rant, but sometimes I simply think their mission in life is to make our lives worse.

In the end I'm just happy that clickthroughs are shitty. And that they stay this way.


To take the counter argument. Modern technology has enabled me to avoid advertising bullshit. I live in a world devoid of ads.

In the 1990s, I used to watch TV and there were lots of ads. Now I have Netflix and the ad blocker takes care of YouTube. There were magazines and newspapers you had to buy but were full of ads. Now it’s free and the adblocker takes care of the ads. Radio ads. Now podcast where you can fastforward, sometimes before you even hear the name of the company.


I don't think you have avoided it completely. Advertising is everywhere you look. Even in Netflix you still see brands in TV shows.


A better measure than anecdata is looking at actual advertising impressions per capita for the population at large.

There's also the question of qualitative change, such as personally targeted advertising and the infrastructure and methods (massive pervasive surveillance) required to support that.

Given global ad spending trends and the consequences of targeted manipulation and mass surveillance, I'd strongly suggest your life is not nearly so free of advertising's influence as you testify, and perhaps even believe.


> magazines and newspapers you had to buy but were full of ads

Computer magazines (and computer/video game magazines) had pretty good ads. They're still fun to read today.

I still miss the Fry's Electronics ad sections in newspapers.

A few years ago at least, print magazines still seemed to be alive in the UK, perhaps in part because they were often sold by newsagents.


And hopefully the blockers will continue to work, as long as your browser vendor, mobile phone vendor, etc, don't change the APIs to prevent or make it infeasible to do it.


There are still ads on Netflix and YouTube despite that, but yes I agree it is much more convenient.


I completely agree with you, but this is a straight up ancient problem, and if you don't believe me, you can ask Scaurus, maker of the best gaurum in Pompeii. The "get crowd's attention and monetize it" strategy has been around since the invention of begging. It's a fundamental strategy in any large group of people. The bigger the crowd, the better it is as a strategy. Sure, social psychologists and marketers are out there making better an better spam, but that's just tuning. As long as there are large groups of people and a way to communicate with them that's even slightly cheaper than the return, it'll never stop.

I suspect there is no solution, but it's interesting to consider some. What would a society look like if you somehow forcibly limited the number of people you could contact?


The first killer app of AR glasses will be blanking out adverts. I imagine putting on a pair and then all the ads just show my next calendar event or task list, or pictures of my kids.

Cuts out billboards, ads on the screen you're looking at, Nike swooshes on people's shoes.


Let me rejig that idea so it's more palatable to a VC audience that's primarily made its money by investing in ad platforms (FB, IG, Pinterest, Twitter).

1) v 1.0 - blanks out ads, the public rejoices

2) v 1.5 - allow ads from 'trusted partners'

3) v 2.0 - introduce a monthly subscription to blank out all ads


Do you really believe that ?

The first killer app of AR glasses will be ads in places where we couldn't have ads before. Your neighbor's lawn ? Ad space. The sky ? Ad space. Whirlpool in a toilet ? Ad space.


This sounds about right.

Imagine waking up, putting on your glasses and looking into the autumn morning sun, dawn. The rays break into golden lines of light. As the sun rises further, a capri sun ad. You sigh and fall back into you bed and stare at the ceiling, another ad taking advantage of the plainess. Be less Boring- Virgin Galactic.

Its sounds like dystopia but future generations will be collecting banner ads as a quaint little hobby like we do stamp collecting.


Now imagine that but on a cold, dark rainy day. Putting on AR glasses makes it look like your house is on a beach with the most beautiful morning sunlight view, except there's a company logo on the sun and the company slogan is floating on the sea surface.


This will work because the goggles and associated services are freely given away. Who would spend so much of their own money when they can have it for free with ads? /sarcasm


Sigh. I guess it depends on whether you can afford the good version. I guess it will be a github project that only people who can operate a compiler and root their headset will be able to do.


I always close the lid on toilets before flushing. I don't want to be spraying toilet water on everything around it.


Exactly.


>What would a society look like if you somehow forcibly limited the number of people you could contact?

You just need to look back into history and see. We've basically been increasing the reach of contact, being the end game: globalization.

So you'd have:

- several monopolies spread across many countries instead of Google for example;

- less massive companies like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Apple;

- less access to services and goods;

- less emigration and brain power leakage;

- less economic growth;

- and the list goes on

Like this board wouldn't exist if you forced that limit.

Is this bad? I don't think it has to be bad necessarily, it's a choice that wasn't made in the past and some countries/organizations have benefited from it more then others.


Thank you for the unique perspective!


Click on random shit to cost the advertisers money lowering their roi and ruin the analytics at the same time

The profile on you in various advertising scumbags databases will eventually be so inaccurate it will be worth the cost to store in a rust platter

Over indulge the scummy advertisers. Cost them as much money as possible for worthless clicks. They crossed so many lines over the last couple of decades people should be embarrassed to work in that industry. Honestly if i did I would lie and say I do animal experimentation. It's basically the same thing after all


By clicking random ads you may be actually encouraging publishers to keep deploying them?


Short-term, certainly. Long-term - negative ROI's would drive away the real customers, who are paying for those ads.

Or at least that's the "Optimism set to 11" plan.


Evil plan: Create a network distributed system (kind of like Seti@Home) specifically for doing this. If there was enough participation to make a difference the advertisers would have to invest in countermeasures which could lead to an arms-race that ultimately erodes all profit from it.


This seems to be a pervasive attitude here.

Pessimistic, cynical, backwards-looking to a golden age that never existed, anti-marketing and sales, etc.

If this is such a huge problem, and you seem to have a lot of passion for it, why not try to create tools to solve it for people?

And if you think business is evil, it doesn’t even have to be a product or service! You could simply create a political organization to try to lobby government to right these wrongs you see in the world.

Your comment is the most upvoted one on this thread so a lot of people must feel the same way.

There’s only one problem.

People are irrationally resistant to change and new things. Even changes that might make their lives better.

To affect this change, you’ll need to get a lot of people’s attention and buy-in via this process…

…called marketing.

Awww crap. This means becoming the thing you hate.

Maybe this is just how the world has always worked and will always work?

And maybe it’s not so bad?


No, it's bad. And while the problem is old the scale of it is new.

It's a false claim often made by marketing people that marketing is synonymous with persuasion and the propagation of ideas. That without marketing everything is doomed to obscurity and irrelevance. Well, that may be true for an increasing number of areas of life in the world that marketing has built but it isn't generally. You've heard of Quantum Mechanics, right? Do you think it says something valid about the world? Did anyone ever market it to you?

Marketing is a fundamentally shallow form of communication. It's the forcing of awareness of something onto people without their choosing to be aware of it. The payload is necessarily low in information content, the interaction is brief and the message is dressed up to be maximally attention-grabbing. These things have negative results, and those negative results become worse the more pervasive marketing gets. The fact that people have always done it doesn't make it good, or make it desirable to allow an unlimited amount of it into our society.

It's worse in modern times for a couple of reasons. One is that our society consumes more information than ever before, and we've made a Faustian bargain with marketing to fund the generation of that information. Another is that marketing drags everything down to its level - the presence of these shallow, maximally distracting signals forces others to do the same in order to be heard. The transformation of politics into marketing (marketed as "inevitable" or "the way it's always been" by marketers) is a case in point. It's cancerous, and I'm glad people are finally waking up to it.


None of us were born with knowledge of quantum mechanics. Some outside force placed that information into your head by sitting you down in a classroom, and incentivizing you enough to remain there under the vague threat of future poverty. Very few things get the privilege of becoming part of a school curriculum. And the way those ideas get there, looks a lot like marketing.

I don't think anything I can say will change your mind. Often, a belief that things were better in the past is more of a personality trait or an emotional disposition motivated by external events rather than something rational.

If you're so inclined though, I highly recommend using the Library of Congress website or Newspapers.com to read what mass communication was like 50-200 years ago.

You'll be amazed at how little has changed:

https://pessimists.co/telephone-archive/

https://pessimists.co/radio-archive/


Again with the equating marketing to communication, propagation of ideas and persuasion. What goes on in a classroom is not marketing, by any useful definition...

Yet.


Any time you have limited attention, and more than one idea vying for that attention, the end result is marketing.

Any argument you make that students should spend an hour learning about quantum mechanics instead of something else on the market of ideas (eg. finance, literature, history, etc.) is by definition an act of positioning.

The curriculum of today is the result of marketing in the past. You just don't see it that way because you weren't around when those decisions were being made.


No, you're defining marketing in a way so broad as to render the term meaningless, as a way of avoiding answering the actual criticisms. An extreme example of this kind of argument would be "murder is doing stuff, here is an example of people doing stuff and it's fine, so murder is fine". This is fallacious (and, if done deliberately, dishonest) so I won't engage in that line of debate further.


Conversely, I would say you’re defining marketing so narrowly that you’re actually just talking about advertising.

But I agree, it sounds like we’re just arguing semantics at this point and have reached the logical end point of all internet debate


What if.. what if we made a spaceship, with cold-sleep capsules, and put them in there, sending them off, to another planet, like Golgafrincham


I've had the same email address for over 15 years and each day I get maybe one spam email at best.

I agree that nearly everything has become a marketing channel but it is possible to avoid most of it.


I agree, but the answer isn't less technology the only way to solve this is with better tech


>I sometimes think, that marketing is one of the worst thing that happened to us. It is constantly destroying all things that worked really well for us.

Oh boy... It's that time of the week again...


Can this be tagged with 2012?

Otherwise people might think Andrew Chen is advocating for mobile notifications and Open Graph in 2021...

Here is the 2012 discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3804055

The dated URL is: http://andrewchen.co/2012/04/05/the-law-of-shitty-clickthrou...


> Similarly, this law provides a litmus test as to the difference between advertising and information. When you are marketing with useful information, then CTRs stay high. Advertising that’s just novelty and noise wrapped in a new marketing channel has a limited shelf life.

As a not-a-marketing/ad-person, if more ads contained useful information and less emotional pandering to whatever/whoever they think I am, I'd be more likely to look at and click on them. That, and not actively surveilling me...


I would too, but we are also not normal.

Compared to the median person we have a much more engineering focused mindset, we have incomparably deeper technical knowledge and skill in computer programming and are far more willing to read.

That means that things that work well to target us may not work well for the average person. I finally understood this after thinking way to many times "why would anybody be stupid enough to do X" when it turns out the answer is lots of people.


Is it not common knowledge that clickthrough rates for online ads are execrable? I recall a discussion here a bit ago about ad tracking and it seemed like a lot of commenters thought that knowing how well an ad worked was as easy as taking the tracking ID of the click that brought the buyer to the seller's site and looking up which ad it was and where it ran.

But clickthrough rates are so bad that they are effectively useless for even for so-called useful ads that nobody with any sophistication cares about that metric. Pretty much the only thing that adtech talks about is CPI now.


This is also the same thinking for why so many random companies have blogs with marginally relevant keyword-specific content written by people with little domain expertise (e.g. contract content writers)


This, and also terrible review articles, "top 10 best X" lists, and anything that can gain an SEO edge.


Unfortunately if they don't know anything about you - then they will not be able to deliver anything informative.


Uhh, I think they meant "informative about the product for sale", not "informative about the aspirations being targeted"


My point was that to informative about a product you need to know the person you are advertising to. First of all because you need to choose the product that he might be interested about.


That's easy, instead of profiling user just select ads based on website content.


I don't get it. It's written as though this spamming marketing cancer is somehow a virtue, and I'm supposed to have an ounce of compassion for the poor marketer constantly having to come up with new ways to shove his shit in my face and admire his ingenuity.


Marketers are now busy ruining web search with blog spam and podcasts with sponsored content.


The one thing that I would like to stress to the HN community is that marketing != advertising.

Most complaints are about intrusive advertising. Product management, customer analysis, demand and financial modeling, and all similar aspects of market making is what marketing traditionally is.

Advertising and promotions is a small component that tars the broader industry.


No, I'm sorry, most complaints here are about intrusive customer analysis, not about ads.

Consumer profiling is a large component that tars the entire industry.


As well as endless newsletter signups in a century where nobody checks their email.


Oh yeah forgot who ruined email, if that wasn't bad enough I can't even pickup the phone anymore because I get multiple scam calls per day.


I guess this varies greatly between countries. I used to get these, but as the GDPR thing came they were less frequent. For the most persistent ones it was enough to say you do not give consent and request to be deleted from their database and never contacted again otherwise you file a complaint with the personal information protection office.

I suspect there are only few companies that manage the contact lists and they are now careful not to overstep the law.

On the other hand, scam calls from abroad started to appear (sir-your-computer-has-a-virus type).


Yeah it's a disaster in the US. I have a fancy title on linkedin so I wake up every day to an inbox full of personalized drip campaigns that don't even have an option to unsubscribe.

I've been using fake names and emails for some accounts online and somehow I recently received physical spam mail with one of those names without ever sharing my address.


I check my email, and it's great, because I _curate_ it. Absurd spam like scams goes to junk anyway. The more legitimate spam I quickly unsubscribe from. And I make sure no service keeps sending notifications I don't need. This way only valuable content ends up in the inbox – interesting newsletters, updates from companies I give a damn about, important notifications, and any personal stuff. Wholly recommended experience, just requires caring about good content.


The newsletter signup is the modern version of "please bookmark this site". Another thing people don't really do anymore.

It's really sad too, because these sites know that you clicked on them from a sea of similar looking results, and this signup form is the only way you're likely to even remember their existence.


We get a lot of sales from our mail blasts in the company I work for.

Might or might not be relevant that we sell products for a niche, technical industry.


Speaking of laws, there should be a law that forces blogs to put publication dates below article titles. Was this article published yesterday or 10 years ago?


I'd be OK if it was at the bottom of the article. And make sure the year is there, too. I've seen far too many blog skins that only show "Oct 15" (for example) but no year anywhere.


Because "evergreen" content is in fact part of the problem being described here.


The main takeaway:

The 10X solution to solving the Law of Shitty Clickthroughs, even momentarily, is to discover the next untapped marketing channel. In addition to doubling down on traditional forms of online advertising like banners, search, and email, it’s important to work hard to get to the next marketing channel while it’s uncontested.

Sometimes I get asked “have you ever seen someone do XYZ to acquire customers?” Turns out, the highest vote of confidence I can give is, “No I haven’t, and that’s good – that means there’s a higher chance of it working. You should try it.”


> The 10X solution to solving the Law of Shitty Clickthroughs, even momentarily, is to discover the next untapped marketing channel.

There is no such thing as an uncontested marketing channel. It's why browsing the Internet feels like a chore on most days. Any interesting UGC site with an audience will be deluged with marketers.

Think about Medium and Quora. Great when they began, back when contributors understood the intent of the site, and wrote accordingly. Today, they are nothing more than an appendage of one's personal brand and SEO strategy.




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