Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin
G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued for 11 October 2021 (noaa.gov)
77 points by ag8 on Oct 10, 2021 | hide | past | favorite | 14 comments


Hasn't come up in the PJM status dashboard, so the northeastern power grid isn't concerned about it. If they were, there would be a geomagnetic disturbance warning listed:

Last listed event was back in May:

    103172 Warning 
    Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 
    05.12.2021 08:50 PJM-RTO
    A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued 
    for 08:50 on 05.12.2021
    through 20:00 on 05.12.2021 . 
    A GMD warning of K-7 or greater is in effect for this period.
There was no "Alert", the next stage, so no action was required.

That May 12th event produced a minor press release.[1]

PJM has more material about this. See pages 25-67 of their training guide for contingencies.[2] This goes into a lot of detail, from how solar wind influences transmission lines to where the sensors for this are to detailed graphs of transformer heating. Useful info for people who work in power stations. ("Noise: 20 dB jump. ‒ It is pretty loud. Myth: Vibrations can destroy a transformer. Vibration a function of GIC; not a big concern.")

Trouble is related to geography. Ground conductivity, related to iron deposits, matters. There are maps in that training guide. Only some lines are affected. Most problems can be avoided by changing power routing, which is what the PJM control center in Valley Forge PA does all day.

They consider events from G1 to G4 to have minor impact. And, yes, they know all about the Carrington Event and the 1989 event. Which, incidentally, damaged only one transformer but did cause some blackouts.

Before getting wound up about this, go read all that material.

[1] https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-geomagnetic-disturban...

[2] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/training/nerc-certifications/gen...


Cool, I live in Valley Forge and had no idea they were headquartered here.


When exactly is "around midday" in a NOAA.gov announcement that has a timestamp in UTC and mentions New York to Washington state as affected areas?


The Australian Space Forecast Centre says:

The CME is expected to arrive at Earth on UT day 11 October at around 1700 UT +/- 6 hours.


For location to matter to that detail they'd need much more precision than "midday". Reasonably they'd need enough certainty to say to the exact hour since Washington and New York are only 1.5 hours offset from the average of each other.


Is this uncommon? Apparently G2 storms happens 600 times per cycle, where a cycle is 11 years?

https://weatherboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Geomagneti...

https://weatherboy.com/g2-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-for...


I believe vast majority of them don't hit Earth.


A storm is categorized by intensity when it hits Earth.

It is common, but not an everyday occurrence


I think it peaks around 4-5 pm UTC which translates to about noon to 1pm eastern time. G2 is pretty minimal but the WSA-Enlil graphic show some interesting effects when you move the scroll bar manually. The Lasco Coronagraph does too (see https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/electric-power-communi...)



Will this have any meaningful interference on electronics?


Possible power grid fluctuations, especially at higher latitudes.

Possible issues with spacecraft.

High-frequency radio at high latitudes could fade.

Aurora could be visible as far south as New York, Wisconsin and Washington state in the US.

(FTFA)


The majority of this one is going to miss us to the north, there will be some cool auroras but M1.6 is not enough to really cause any tangible effects.


I wonder if modern power grids and communication systems have been built to be more resillient against large solar storms. There was one in 1989 that knocked out the Quebec power grid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm).




Consider applying for YC's Winter 2026 batch! Applications are open till Nov 10

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: