It's not realistic instantly. Even Madoff's victims got a recovery eventually. From OP we know at least 25% of tether's reserves is in a bank in cash. If it was seized I could see the market heading to 50-75c or so, there will be lots of people that want to gamble on an eventual recovery.
I'm very skeptical that FTX has 10B USDT on the balance sheet. OP here says Sam has billions of tether, which makes sense but is not enough to blow them up, and is likely in Alameda being as he says it's for trading, not in FTX.
(Of course it's possible that FTX has 10B in USDT deposits, but that belongs to their customers who would be very sad if it nuked but doesn't directly hurt FTX.)
Futures insurance fund may be an issue, yes, especially in scenarios where it shifts very rapidly. If you have math on a plausible scenario and total losses across the major markets I'd be interested in seeing it. But you'd have to be looking at several billion in losses or at over 1B directly attributable to FTX for them to go bust - they've raised over a billion and make 350M/year per recent Forbes article, so that's a lot of capital.
I'm very skeptical that FTX has 10B USDT on the balance sheet. OP here says Sam has billions of tether, which makes sense but is not enough to blow them up, and is likely in Alameda being as he says it's for trading, not in FTX.
(Of course it's possible that FTX has 10B in USDT deposits, but that belongs to their customers who would be very sad if it nuked but doesn't directly hurt FTX.)
Futures insurance fund may be an issue, yes, especially in scenarios where it shifts very rapidly. If you have math on a plausible scenario and total losses across the major markets I'd be interested in seeing it. But you'd have to be looking at several billion in losses or at over 1B directly attributable to FTX for them to go bust - they've raised over a billion and make 350M/year per recent Forbes article, so that's a lot of capital.