It is good there is more data being collected, so we can discuss actual facts with evidence, as opposed to pure speculations 'I believe it is a lab leak' vs 'I believe it is natural'.
It could easily be a natural virus that was collected, but leaked from a the lab that studied it. To me, it makes sense to look at biohazard lab safety procedures if there was even a chance the lab was a factor in its spread. It’s possible to make mistakes while following best practices, or that those practices themselves need improved. It’s sad that it’s become a blame game of who caused the pandemic, when what we really need is an impartial account to prevent the next pandemic.
A blame game is only sad if it was a true accident. If both the US and China were actually trying to develop such a virus and one of them accidentally released it, neither will be able to tolerate transparency because it would lead to international blame and desire for revenge.
The bio weapon theory just seems crazy, because why would a nation make a highly transmissible virus that it has no tools to control the pathogen? I’m working on the assumption that states like stability, workforce not dying, and strong economies.
The Trumpist attacks on China make the most sense as being for the domestic political audience. The Chinese coverup of anything that makes CCP rule seem imperfect is SOP. I mean seriously, that guy in charge is afraid of a talking teddy bear.
If it was a natural virus it is way, way more likely that it would have infected locals (farming bat guano for instance) than it would be discovered by a researcher, then brought back to Wuhan, then leaked there.
We also have no idea where the outbreak started, only where the first hotspot was.
I'm not so sure about that, since Wuhan researchers regularly went to bat caves to collect virus samples. The bat caves being over 1000 km away from Wuhan, it seems not that unlikely that sars-cov-19 was brought from the bats to Wuhan on one of those field trips.
Then again, it may very well be the case that Wuhan was not the place of the first transmission to humans, just the one were it first happened on a large enough scale to be noticed and recognized as something new.
I think there's not enough evidence to dismiss any of the transmission routes.
>If it was a natural virus it is way, way more likely that it would have infected locals
Not really, if they've been coexisting with the virus for a while they could be somewhat immune already. Also, you cannot compare the impact of an outbreak in a rural town in Laos vs. Wuhan with 11 million people and much more international commuters.
Even without all the speculation the 'I believe it is a lab leak' vs 'I believe it is natural' debate is severely misguided.
Natural origin is only incompatible with lab-made, but not at all incompatible with lab leak. Lab-made an lab leak are two very different things, yet even scientific papers interpret evidence against one of those as evidence against the other.
It is indeed good that more data is being collected, because the sad fact is that there are currently far too few actual facts and evidence to make any reasonable deduction of what happened and how best to prevent it from happening again.
Exactly. I have been a strong proponent of considering all possibilities of origin. It's exciting that we're getting closer. Someone elsewhere in the thread that 95% identical is a very close match.[0]
The lab's published research program, the lab's funding, the almost exact proximity of the outbreak, the lab's and CCP's actions since October 2019, the whistleblowers, the analysis of the virus's genome, does not add up to "pure speculation". We may never know 100% conclusively, but juries never do either.
That is your opinion. From my point of view, what I have seen is consistent with both natural and lab leak hypothesis. One can argue how much indirect indications tilt the scales one way or another (from my point of view not much), but at least in my book the original question is still open. That's why I think more data is good.
