I don't use Tailscale because I don't trust their key distribution, and this open source project would solve that, but it might undermine Tailscale's sustainability.
This would be a shame because Tailscale is working well with the open source community: open source clients, working well with distros, working well with Linux DNS stack, supporting a more P2P secure Internet, and documenting their well through it.
You buy a Tailscale contract for the same reason you buy a Red Hat contract. If something goes wrong, and you need to fix it fast, their experts will work on that, not yourself.
Also, Tailscale offers OAuth through large corporate providers; I'm not sure Headscale is going to support that. (Actually, this is why I don't use Tailscale for my private network: I don't want to depend on an external OAuth provider.)
Companies looking into this will pay Tailscale.com service. You really need commercial support if you plan a large enterprise deployment. Tailscale even now offers a self-hosted version of their service - for those with concerns about using the public SaaS.
You can possibly buy a subscription but tell the devs that you're using headscale. If enough people do this they might make a host-your-own version like bitwarden.
I agree - there's always a danger with companies that try and have a lot of their product as OS that someone will come along with an OS product that plugs the gap in the only place they're trying to make a profit!
I think because in this case they enforce that by hosting the control plane themselves, it doesn't really matter. I wouldn't use something I can't self-host anyway, not something as security-sensitive as a VPN.
So many users will not have even considered the paid version anyway, and their participation will give tailscale a higher marketshare and thus more viability.
I don't use Tailscale because I don't trust their key distribution, and this open source project would solve that, but it might undermine Tailscale's sustainability.
This would be a shame because Tailscale is working well with the open source community: open source clients, working well with distros, working well with Linux DNS stack, supporting a more P2P secure Internet, and documenting their well through it.