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You don’t find black swans from the data you find them from building better models. You can look at 100 years of local flood and weather data to build up a flood assessment, but that’s not going to include mudslides or earthquakes etc. The same applies to studies.

My point is this: You can’t combine them using Bayesian statistics adjusting for the possibility of research fraud it’s simply not in the data.

Their great for well understood domains, less so for research. Frequentist models don’t work, but they also don’t even try.

PS: Math errors don’t really fall into modeling error.



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