About 10 years ago I was in Vegas at the Riviera (now demolished). At the time it was on the cheap end of the strip and tried to attract customers by offering very attractive odds on games. They had a blackjack table that was single-deck, and they would deal pretty deep before shuffling. Those are ideal conditions for an amateur card counter like myself.
But the real kicker was, they had a side game that paid out extra bonuses for blackjacks. Blackjack paid like 5-1 on the side bet, suited AK BJ paid like 20-1, etc. I'm forgetting the exact payouts.
That night I built a simple spreadsheet to analyze the game, and calculate the effect on expected value of removing a card from the deck. I discovered that if they dealt 8 cards without an ace, the side bet became profitable. If they dealt two hands without an ace, it became wildly +EV.
I cleaned up the next morning. Really surprisingly, they never cut me off, even though the dealer made some snide remarks about card counting and I didn't make much effort to hide my strategy.
I think Vegas in general profits from the awareness of card counting and that some bets can be player-advantage at times. (They’ll back off card counters who are dangerous to their profits, but small time counting is overall casino-advantage I think [people do it imperfectly, they combine their advantage play with other gambling leaks, etc.])
I sat next to a guy at the Bellagio who was obviously counting with a base bet of a couple black chips, but didn't go nuts with his betting when the count was hot. The pit boss was an older guy and clearly saw it. In fact he started counting out loud and teasing the player. They really don't care about some tourist who comes out twice a year counting. I assume they do get cross about teams though and maybe local grinders too.
Personally I don't see the appeal of counting, except maybe a simple Ace-5 count[1] since that requires basically no effort whatsoever and nudges the EV to near 1. I like to play to socialize and have that VIP experience the good casinos deliver so well. When I want to gamble for real money I trade options.
Edit: You can even ask for a courtesy shuffle on a cold count in a heads up game and I’ve never seen the pit boss deny it. Casual counters just aren’t a concern at the strip Casinos. It probably doesn’t hurt that I toke generously too.
Yeah, it took me several years, but I finally came to the conclusion that advantage gambling was the hardest way to make an easy living. Counting is boring as hell. Casinos are boring as hell. Poker can be exciting but not in a good way if your living depends on it.
You need to manage your bankroll with the Kelly criterion or something similar. Consider a hypothetical game with a 1% player edge. Even in that game naive betting will lead to certain ruin.
I think in this particular case it was because I was betting the side bet hard. Usually the side bets are sucker bets, and counters avoid them. They didn't realize that this particular side bet could be (very easily!) counted.
But also, the Riviera is out of business, so why assume they were good at their jobs?
But the real kicker was, they had a side game that paid out extra bonuses for blackjacks. Blackjack paid like 5-1 on the side bet, suited AK BJ paid like 20-1, etc. I'm forgetting the exact payouts.
That night I built a simple spreadsheet to analyze the game, and calculate the effect on expected value of removing a card from the deck. I discovered that if they dealt 8 cards without an ace, the side bet became profitable. If they dealt two hands without an ace, it became wildly +EV.
I cleaned up the next morning. Really surprisingly, they never cut me off, even though the dealer made some snide remarks about card counting and I didn't make much effort to hide my strategy.