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> By this reasoning, "I'm tired because I didn't sleep" is fundamentally different from "I'm tired because I exercised a lot".

Well, they are different because they propose different causes. Either of these statements (and the so-called counterfactuals in the article) might be true, depending on the actual cause.

The distinction that matters here is that statements of causes are not solutions, and solutions are elicited by different questions than are causes ("what can we do about it?", rather than "why did it happen?") It does not really have anything to do with counterfactuals vs. causes, and the author's actual point seems to be about how to present solutions.




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