1 - Birth rates are falling. We’re getting pretty damned close to the peak of human population. There are some very easy steps we can do to expedite this, such as helping reduce infant mortality rate among the global poor, a move that is known to reduce fertility rates too.
2 - Consumption is wildly uneven among the world’s population. Focusing on population implies that those areas with high fertility rates are the issue, when in fact the primary limiting factor is and will remain the high consumption rate of the world’s richest nations.
Population momentum means population will peak at 11.2 billion people near the end of the century [1] before it declines. Total fertility rate drop isn't happening fast enough (need to get closer to 1 vs 2.1 replacement rate), and we've already locked in the expansion to 11.2 billion. 3 billion people can't afford to get enough nutrition [2]. That number will increase before it decreases.
Consider we're already on the path to exceed our carbon budget [3], and billions of people are trying to climb out of poverty (which requires fossil fuels, resources, and food production, which we are already managing....poorly and unsustainably). Many countries still offer funds to people to have children and have pro-natalist policies (to goose economic policy and pay for elderly entitlements and stave off the economic contraction). We're not just headed off the cliff; we're pushing our foot on the gas.
TLDR Those who consume the most will need to consume less, and even then there is likely not enough to go around for first world standards for all.
Yes, there is work to be done. But I really really dislike the overpopulation and “tough decisions” narrative because:
1) It places the onus and blame on the people that are currently not the problem.
2) It implies that we must force people to have fewer kids, when evidence shows that women universally want to have fewer kids given the choice. We don’t need to coerce them, we need to help them.
Physical systems don't really care how distasteful ideas are. I don't mean to be rude, at all, but facts are life isn't fair. Climate systems don't sit around arguing over the equitability of development rights based on who emitted carbon when.
Rich countries burned fossil fuels for 100+ years to develop. Does anyone think those countries are going to revert to much lower standards (somewhere between European and developing country standards) to give that same advantage to developing countries? Absolutely not.
EDIT: I want to be very clear before my edit window expires; I do not believe anyone should be forced not to have kids (although I would be onboard paying folks who choose not to have kids a direct transfer payment, just as it's not taboo to pay people to have kids and many governments do it). But I also believe no one should have one or many kids if their socioeconomic circumstances don't allow for it. We should absolutely strive to empower and educate women, as you mention this causes a natural decline in fertility rates [1].
> I don't mean to be rude, at all, but facts are life isn't fair. Climate systems don't sit around arguing over the equitability of development rights based on who emitted carbon when.
I’ll put it simpler: you are completely wrong about what needs to be done and by whom.
Accidentally or not, you are repeating the narrative of eugenicists who are obsessed with over population in the global south, rather than the actual facts on the ground. We need to focus on de-carbonizing our industry, rather than the reproduction rate of those who currently consume the fewest resources per capita.
I argue helping people live better lives through education, robust family planning options and availability, and direct cash payments is not eugenics, but feel free to call me whatever you'd like. I'm comfortable with my position based on a foundation of empathy and pragmatism. I believe all human beings should be treated with dignity and respect.
I’m not calling you a eugenicist, I am worried you’re accidentally repeating their points. We absolutely can and should do what we can to help the global south, but focusing on over population as a source of our ills is a eugenicist talking point.
The problem is, and always has been our dependence on fossil fuels to increase our standard of living. Solve that, and the difference between 7-10billion humans is moot
This is probably not a popular opinion here, but I'm actually quite optimistic on our transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Things have been progressing nicely and I expect that progress to dramatically accelerate over the next 15 years.
I’m actually feeling pretty optimistic too. The fact that my house is currently a net exporter of green energy is certainly helping my mood in this area.
Just want to say I appreciate the discussion you two are having. Excellent points from the both of you. And it's nice to see a civilized discussion for once.
> … "it's nice to see a civilized discussion for once."
I've seen far more of that here than just about anywhere else on the Web where news is discussed. I appreciate it greatly, and the world needs more of it for sure.
"It places the onus and blame on the people that are currently not the problem."
This isn't necessarily true. There are many families in developed countries that have more than 2 kids. If you limit families to 2 kids then you could see the fertility rate drop lower (ideally fertility and immigration growth together would be under the replacement rate in developed countries).
"It implies that we must force people to have fewer kids, when evidence shows that women universally want to have fewer kids given the choice. We don’t need to coerce them, we need to help them."
This is generally true, but ignores outliers and the association with other factors. You generally only see the decline in fertility rate in areas that have lower infant mortality, which is also usually associated with a more modern lifestyle and economic conditions. You still have a subset of women in developed countries having a ton of kids for other reasons, like they want a big family, or religious things like the Hassidic community.
If the average is low enough, then nothing. If the goal is to reduce consumption in high consumption developed countries, then you need it to drop low enough that the total population growth is at or below replacement (like birth rate + immigration).
While its possible that climate change may slow or reverse this trend, the number of people globally experiencing malnutrition has actually been falling over time.
All data indicates that climate change will diminish crop yields [1] and ocean life harvests [2] [3] [4]. If there is data to the contrary, I am open to consuming it to update my mental model.
> Researchers combined a global dataset of field warming experiments conducted at 48 sites to estimate decreased yields of 7.1 percent for maize, 5.6 percent for rice, 10.6 percent for soybean and 2.9 percent for wheat. Their estimates were 95 percent probable for the first three staples and 89 percent for wheat.
> In response, “technological and adaptive measures, such as northern expansion of the croplands, will thus have to increase yield by 1.8–2.0 percent per year to meet the conservative estimates of a 70 percent increase in food demand,” the researchers wrote.
> However, that required rate is higher than the historical yield increases in the late 20th century, “which is both challenging and alarming, considering the stagnating yield increases widely observed for the past decade,” they concluded.
> If current population trends continue at the same rate, the world will need to double its food production by 2050. To compensate, world leaders are consistently looking toward fisheries to be a critical source of protein for millions of people.
> In 2016, 171 million tons of fish were taken from the sea, and that number is expected to rise to 201 million over the next 10 years.
(my note: I have serious doubts this is sustainable)
Regarding carbon, while it is possible we’ve already exceeded our budget on the pessimistic end, on the optimistic end (that we have 15 years), the current growth of PV alone is enough to for me expect it will turn out… well, ‘fine’ isn’t the right word but “not catastrophic” at the least.
Phosphorus, biodiversity, stuff like that? Still a concern.
> 3 billion people can't afford to get enough nutrition
Depending on the country, 1/3rd to 1/2 of all produced food goes to waste - and a lot of that is due to customers expecting that every supermarket has to have their particular brand of generic, short shelf-life goods (e.g. yogurt, salads and other vegetables, baked goods) on stock 24/7 and similar absurdities. And any suggestion to curb that shit, either by limiting the amount of different brands available in stores or to limit the time slots in which customers can expect fresh goods, gets quickly shot down by outrage mobs fearing the advent of socialism (which is associated with empty shelves).
As for the "can't afford" part: we need to get global wealth disparity under control, and especially us Europeans and Americans have to stop killing African textile and food industry by "donating" our excesses.
> Many countries still offer funds to people to have children and have pro-natalist policies
Anti-natalist politics are by definition always walking on the cliff of eugenics. Any attempt of restricting who is allowed to reproduce or how much will always lead into selection questions - China for example now suffers from a vast lack of women, as parents aborted or murdered female newborns, and I don't want to get started with the horrors that the Nazi regime committed.
The best and especially humane solution to curb overpopulation is to reduce poverty and increase healthcare - it has been shown that once people from a population get lifted in wealth so they don't need to have ten kids to have three survive to adulthood and one to take over their care in old age, child birth rate automatically drops!
"The best and especially humane solution to curb overpopulation is to reduce poverty and increase healthcare - it has been shown that once people from a population get lifted in wealth so they don't need to have ten kids to have three survive to adulthood and one to take over their care in old age, child birth rate automatically drops!"
... and per capita consumption of resources increase, usually creating a large net increase in resource consumption based in the modern lifestyle.
> "… and per capita consumption of resources increase, usually creating a large net increase in resource consumption based in the modern lifestyle."
Exactly why such a complex issue cannot be solved with one or two simple solutions as so many seem to think. We need to reduce consumption and abuse of limited resources and normalize such behavior in the minds of human society as a whole. Especially among those most actively doing said abusing and (wasteful) consuming. We also need to be more open to the idea of change, because change is coming whether we like it or not. There's a terrifyingly large portion of humans in decision-making positions on this planet who are fighting tooth-and-nail to maintain an unsustainable "growth oriented" status-quo.
"There's a terrifyingly large portion of humans in decision-making positions on this planet who are fighting tooth-and-nail to maintain an unsustainable "growth oriented" status-quo."
That's because our economies would collapse. Most of the population don't want the restrictions that would be necessary. So how do we change societal and individual views to give up the freedoms and resources that we have been enjoying?
This only holds true if you are ok with areas with high birth rates and low consumption remaining poor and refusing to let them migrate to the rest of the world, which seems a hugely unlikely scenario in practice.
It seems most likely that either these areas will develop economically and thus consumption will rise, or their skyrocketing populations and lack of development will cause rising internal tensions/crises and pressure to emigrate to the higher-consumption parts of the world. Most likely some of both.
"Adding 2.5 billion poor people to the planet in 80 years won't be a problem because we'll ensure they stay impoverished and in their home countries" isn't really as palatable a solution to overpopulation as you make it sound.
Your point is true if and only if we cannot decouple standards of living and carbon emissions. Then again if that’s true then we are doomed; restricting the world’s poor from breeding or consuming would not be enough to save this planet, the global rich currently produces more than enough CO2 to damn us all.
The only way to save our species is to find a way to decouple standards of living from carbon production. Anything else is insufficient and can only delay the inevitable at best.
You assume that our current population is sustainable. Is it? We aren't living sustainable lives. Sure, this varies by country, but I believe this is globally true.
We are expected to peak well beyond our current level. Estimates are about 10-11 billion - a 25%+ increase.
A major problem with your infant mortality comment and consumption comment is that reducing infant mortality is also associated with modern lifestyles and an increase in consumption. Consumption patterns change as the mortality and fertility rates drop and economic opportunities increase. Our economies are built on consumerism and spending. We see this trend in developing nations today (you have to compare for various demographics, not just the country level).
It’s not sustainable, and that has absolutely nothing to do with population count and everything to do with how we’ve structured our society. We could eliminate everyone but America and it still wouldn’t be sustainable, it would just take longer to tip over into disastrous global warming.
It is literally impossible to make a society sustainable via birth rate alone, which is why I object to the argument vigorously. The only solution is to find a way to make our society and technology sustainable, rather than just hoping that birth control will fix it.
"It is literally impossible to make a society sustainable via birth rate alone, which is why I object to the argument vigorously."
And who is making that argument? This isn't what I'm saying at all.
"The only solution is to find a way to make our society and technology sustainable, rather than just hoping that birth control will fix it."
I'm asking is our current global population level sustainable? It sounds like that's a no. There is at least point-in-time population limits to what our "sustainable" system can handle based on advances in technology and societal restrictions. I use quotes here because we do not have a sustainable system, and the number of people who can be sustainably supported is at least billions lower than we are at today given today's technology.
It has to be a combinations of available sustainable tech/lifestyle and having a population that doesn't exceed the limits of sustainability.
> I'm asking is our current global population level sustainable? It sounds like that's a no.
At the current levels, it is not. If we shifted over to renewables then it would be.
I find focusing on the population extremely weird, given that the vast majority of emissions are coming from a relatively small portion of rich nations. We could eliminate the entire global south and still tip this planet into disastrous global warming purely based on the emissions of small, rich countries in the north.
Put more blatantly, I find that a lot of the discussion about overpopulation is an attempt to put the blame of global warming and our sustainability problems on those who emit the least per capita. There is very little merit to discussions about controlling population size while rich nations continue to depend on fossil fuels to maintain their standards of living.
"If we shifted over to renewables then it would be."
How would that help soil erosion, food production/waste? How would that help with other resource use like metals, timber, fish stocks, etc? There is a lot more to sustainability than just CO2. Even looking just at that, where can we get that much lithium, copper, concrete/asphalt substitute, silicon for solar, etc? There are restrictions to the resources we use and process.
"Put more blatantly, I find that a lot of the discussion about overpopulation is an attempt to put the blame of global warming and our sustainability problems on those who emit the least per capita."
Where was that said? That's not what I'm saying. You still seem to be focused solely on fossil fuels here ("emit"). As nations develop, they will also adopt a more modern and higher consumption lifestyle. This is a global trend that also applies to developed nations continuing to get richer and indulge in having an even better life (eg parents always want more for their kids than they had for themselves, substantial numbers of people want the newest iPhone, look at house size over time, etc).
I do agree with your overall point. That said, while an impoverished family with a dozen children isn't consuming much today, inevitably, they're going to consume a lot more as their nation gets wealthier, which is what's happening in Asia. As you alluded to, the solution is to develop these countries more quickly, so they'll no longer be incentives to have more children.
But the birth rate isn't really the point. It's a proxy for consumption. As the nation gets wealthier, the per capita consumption goes up and generally creates a net increase in consumption.
The point is that developing countries will increase their per capita consumption regardless. If birth rate decreases with level of consumption/gdp, you want to accelerate into it, thereby limiting the peak total consumption.
For example, it would be better if Nigeria hit a European standard of living and stabilizes population sooner at say 400 million people. The alternative is they grow per capita consumption more slowly and hit an EU standard and stabilize later at 1 billion people.
"The point is that developing countries will increase their per capita consumption regardless. If birth rate decreases with level of consumption/gdp, you want to accelerate into it, thereby limiting the peak total consumption."
Generally the accelerations coincide with one another. The only reason the population is increasing now is because some developments are being taken advantage of like food supply and medical care.
It depends if sooner is better. Many times it's easier to implement new technologies from scratch rather than revamp old infrastructure. If we rush implementation, then it can just be a waste of resources (look at sewage treatment in many parts of Africa that modeled it after the US).
1 - Birth rates are falling. We’re getting pretty damned close to the peak of human population. There are some very easy steps we can do to expedite this, such as helping reduce infant mortality rate among the global poor, a move that is known to reduce fertility rates too.
2 - Consumption is wildly uneven among the world’s population. Focusing on population implies that those areas with high fertility rates are the issue, when in fact the primary limiting factor is and will remain the high consumption rate of the world’s richest nations.