Many of these drugs will be legal either by prescription or when taken under medical supervision in 15 - 20 years anyway due to the following factors:
- The baby boomers who were coming of age in the 60s will become the ones with the most political power in another 10 - 20 years. And the younger generations are more liberal on drug issues in general.
- The rising cost of gasoline will encourage more people to move back into the cities, where they will become more liberal.
- The exponentially decreasing cost of genetic engineering means the average high school kid will be able to modify algae and yeast to make millions of doses of LSD for no more than a few hundred dollars.
- The exponentially falling costs of LED lights means that in another 10 - 15 years people will be able to cheaply grow marijuana indoors without the risk of getting caught by heat sensing helicopters or high electric bills.
- The rise of European science, where at least so far it has been somewhat easier for scientists to study drug use in humans without excessive government interference.
- The economic costs of the drug war are becoming no longer affordable.
- There is going to be an increasingly strong outcry for new medicines that actually work due to an aging population, and due to the extremely high costs and low efficacy of the current system. It's currently politically feasible to let a few hundred thousand people die for no reason each year because no one notices, but once this becomes a few million people each year people are going to start noticing.
- Most people just favor what their friends favor and don't really think through the issues. So as more people come to favor various forms of government regulation instead of criminalization there will be some sort of tipping point, similarly to what we've seen with marijuana in many states already.
No one of these factors would be enough to tip the balance, but all of them combined are going to cause some powerful changes in society. Currently the FDA is already approving many trials with MDMA, marijuana, psilocybin, and other drugs, so the only real hurdle at this point is the DEA and the white house. And that's not going to last forever, especially since this new lawsuit the ASA is about to file is almost certain to move the needle at least a little.
People are most likely to vote between age 55 and 74. The folks who were coming of age during the 60s are only just approaching 60 - 65 years old now.
Similarly, the median age of a US senator is ~62, and 59 of the 435 congressman were born before 1943.
The exact numbers are admittedly a little fuzzy, but it's clear that the baby boomers are still going to be replacing the older generation in significant numbers for at least another decade.
Agreed. I think he underestimates the willingness of people to submit to authority and to sacrifice logical thought for comfort and certainty. Our media and government are both increasingly sophisticated in their abilities to manipulate, coerce, and mislead, and our populace in increasingly willing to ask no hard questions for fear of shattering the daily comfort of the lives we are fed.
> The exponentially falling costs of LED lights means that in another 10 - 15 years people will be able to cheaply grow marijuana indoors without the risk of getting caught by heat sensing helicopters or high electric bills.
No it won't. Fluorescent lights are already better (and always have been better) than LEDs in electrical efficiency.
"Perfect" efficiency for white light is 251 lumens/watt. A high quality fluorescent lamp does 100 lumens/watt. There isn't a lot of improvement available.
Assuming plants need monochromatic light then perfect is in the 600 range (it depends on the frequency), that still isn't a huge jump from the currently available 100.
> The rising cost of gasoline will encourage more people to move back into the cities, where they will become more liberal.
Except that rents and cost of living are higher in cities, gasoline is a very minor issue for people living in rural areas. Lack of income would be the main issue, and with the rise of the internet and telecommuting, high paying white collar jobs are going to be available anywhere.
So if anything the opposite will happen.
Also moving to a city doesn't make someone liberal, don't confuse cause and effect!
> gasoline is a very minor issue for people living in
> rural areas
I think that he was referring to the suburbs. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think that there are large quantities of people currently living in rural areas (compared to the amount of people that are living in urban areas).
> moving to a city doesn't make someone liberal,
> don't confuse cause and effect!
I think there are a couple of factors at play here:
* People are less likely to convert from conservative -> liberal if they live only around like-minded people.
* Cities 'in general' tend to be more liberal than rural/suburban areas.
You're right that it's not a 1:1 conversion, though. Only a percentage of people will change their views.
- The baby boomers who were coming of age in the 60s will become the ones with the most political power in another 10 - 20 years. And the younger generations are more liberal on drug issues in general.
- The rising cost of gasoline will encourage more people to move back into the cities, where they will become more liberal.
- The exponentially decreasing cost of genetic engineering means the average high school kid will be able to modify algae and yeast to make millions of doses of LSD for no more than a few hundred dollars.
- The exponentially falling costs of LED lights means that in another 10 - 15 years people will be able to cheaply grow marijuana indoors without the risk of getting caught by heat sensing helicopters or high electric bills.
- The rise of European science, where at least so far it has been somewhat easier for scientists to study drug use in humans without excessive government interference.
- The economic costs of the drug war are becoming no longer affordable.
- There is going to be an increasingly strong outcry for new medicines that actually work due to an aging population, and due to the extremely high costs and low efficacy of the current system. It's currently politically feasible to let a few hundred thousand people die for no reason each year because no one notices, but once this becomes a few million people each year people are going to start noticing.
- Most people just favor what their friends favor and don't really think through the issues. So as more people come to favor various forms of government regulation instead of criminalization there will be some sort of tipping point, similarly to what we've seen with marijuana in many states already.
No one of these factors would be enough to tip the balance, but all of them combined are going to cause some powerful changes in society. Currently the FDA is already approving many trials with MDMA, marijuana, psilocybin, and other drugs, so the only real hurdle at this point is the DEA and the white house. And that's not going to last forever, especially since this new lawsuit the ASA is about to file is almost certain to move the needle at least a little.