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Weren't all of those just obvious in 1990? Seriously, I don't think this is the benefit of hindsight speaking.



It's not as obvious as it sounds. If it is, then this will be an easy question to answer:

What will technology be like in 2030?


Well lets see, I have high hopes for brute force computation approaches to scientific research. More IBM Watson-like systems, which teach themselves, and more full automation of complex scientific experiments. Industrialize, automate and computerize science, in other words.

If we do that, we have a chance of increasing the rate of scientific discovery. And it does not require true God like AI, just a bunch of really clever and domain specific Watsons.

Alternatively, the future looks much like today, except with a lot more and better gadgets, but people still grow old and die.

Also we've either started massive C02 sequestering actions, like fertilizing the oceans with iron, and using tons of charcoal in our farms, or nuclear power provides a much larger % of global power, or Siberia is balmy.

And lastly the US and several other industrialized nations have gone through a terrible economic/financial crisis and reform like the UK did in the 1970s and Sweden at the begging of the 19th century.

And China is the world's super power, with India close behind, and no one cares much about the EU (or what's left of it) and the US.

Tuna is extinct in the wild.


A lot of things about today weren't obvious in 1990, but they're not on that list. These would have been amazing predictions then:

1. Searching the internet will become perhaps the most profitable and one of the most important businesses in all of technology.

2. Social networking will change the way people interact with each other but "virtual reality" will not catch on. People will end up preferring a loose representation of socialization.

3. Shortened attention span with regard to communication, rise of blogs and then tweets and text messages cutting into and even in some cases replacing traditional media.




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