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Is this thinking _really_ the source of all the problems?

I have to admit I expected to see something idiotic when I clicked through to the link! Like, "pshah, pure speculation!" but instead I am looking at a chart that any broker worth their salt, even a conservative one, might green-light for a client right now, today. So I'm sharing what I'm seeing and no, this doesn't perfectly fit a speculation-cabal mindset.

IOW: This is clearly a price level where your non-cabal types will happily buy in and take a reasonable profit later.

For all we know, the really evil ones could have brought it down to this level. So are we going to pin the blame on those millions of people attempting to prepare for a retirement?

And there's nothing wrong with sharing another perspective, is there, really?

Nobody's even proven, or shown how speculation is the source of the problem. It's just expected that we simply believe that? Speculation could be a side effect for all we really know.

I've been trading technicals for years, and a huge lesson you learn is that everybody has a "why", and everybody has a story, but it always comes late. You then turn around and see the same patterns in nature and start to realize: "Why" can be a terribly unhelpful and misleading direction to take your solutions-oriented mindset.

If you want to cut down on speculation, IMO you need to look into things critically, deeply, and everybody's "why" ought to be first. Was it _really_ speculation? Or are speculators just watching natural patterns unfold and joining the ride?

Metaphorically: Even if it feels amazing to pin the blame on the fox who got into the hen house, do you want to go after every fox in the forest, or maybe understand the fox better--draw the foxes around to another location, or design a hen house with doors on it?

I visited the link with an open mind. But I have experience with charts like that and I can tell you, people will buy here, and the price will very likely go up again. I just think that we can do better, creatively if we want to "solve" the greater lumber issue.




It seems you are working from a theory built around price "anchoring". It's a proven bad model.


Nope, not price anchoring. And how do you effectively prove a negative anyway...I see people profiting from models that were long considered voodoo. Always manage risk.


Some people profit at the slot machines sometimes too. For what it’s worth.


Yes, it’s clear speculation is the source of much of this, “all” was hyperbole on my part.


> fairly clearly speculation is the source of much of this

That's a hand wave. You don't want to open your mind and look at different perspectives, fine. But let's not ever think of such a position as a high-quality one.


Okay that seems reasonable.




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