My understanding of out-of-order (and pipelined) CPUs is limited, but it’s interesting that CMOV isn’t interpreted as a “Jcc over MOV” by the decoder. That would allow using the branch predictor. Would it be too complex or does the microarchitecture not even allow it?

I think that thread is where I first learned this actually. Didn't remember it until you linked it now, thanks for posting it!