>Now of course I am not an economist so it is ridiculous to believe that I have found the fatal flaw in a published paper, but because of the political nature of such articles I find it hard to trust the "hard numbers". I remain skeptical.
I admittedly haven't read the paper properly, but did study economics at undergrad and read many similar papers. This is how a lot of economics works, you end up with published papers claiming completely different results because of small differences model assumptions. Multiple models can be consistent with observed data while providing vastly different policy implications. If you want to look at a well publicized example (though I think it might have to do more with different econometric assumptions) look at the research published on the Mariel boatlift and its impact on labor markets. See here - https://www.bruegel.org/2017/06/the-mariel-boatlift-controve...
I admittedly haven't read the paper properly, but did study economics at undergrad and read many similar papers. This is how a lot of economics works, you end up with published papers claiming completely different results because of small differences model assumptions. Multiple models can be consistent with observed data while providing vastly different policy implications. If you want to look at a well publicized example (though I think it might have to do more with different econometric assumptions) look at the research published on the Mariel boatlift and its impact on labor markets. See here - https://www.bruegel.org/2017/06/the-mariel-boatlift-controve...