This is clearly the wrong question to ask if you want to determine whether interventions were merited. You need to ask: is it likely the situation would have been worse... or better had whatever specific intervention not taken place, and you need to include positive and negative consequences to at the very least the wider region, if not the entire globe.

After all, you don't blame a nurse for all their dying patients if their specialty is palliative care; the counterfactual matters.