Ford has already sold over 100,000 EV's, and if they can't sell 100,000 Mach-E's in the next 12 months then they're doing something wrong. So by the time the F-150 becomes available their credit should be in the wind-down phase.
Another likely scenario is that Biden gets his infrastructure bill through and the credit becomes available to all US-manufactured EV's.
As far as I know, Ford is capacity constrained to the point that they will only be able to ship ~50k Mach-E's this year.
Not only that, but the phaseout process for rebates is VERY slow. Its likely they will still have at least some rebates until some time in 2023, even without a change in the law.
> if they can't sell 100,000 Mach-E's in the next 12 months then they're doing something wrong.
Specifically, the thing they are doing wrong is not having enough capacity to make 100K Mach-Es this year. It's not that demand isn't there, but rather the supply can't meet demand. Same problem Tesla has, just in smaller numbers on the Ford side for the time being.
Another likely scenario is that Biden gets his infrastructure bill through and the credit becomes available to all US-manufactured EV's.