This is nice, but it probably isn't enough. Because T-Mobile has so many different phone models, a single app will only be able to reach a fraction of their customers.
But they don't all have different development environments. J2ME takes a huge chunk. There are thousands of existing apps, this just makes distro easier. Unless you were a big firm you probably weren't getting on the deck (and even then it wasn't easy).
If T-Mobile does it right it will be easy to target a specific platform (Sidekick, BlackBerry, etc) for apps that use features unique to certain platforms. No one has a real track record for doing it right, but there's always a chance.
It doesn't have to work on everything to suceed, as long as:
- There are large enough subsets to be worthwhile in their own right (e.g. J2ME phones, all Blackberry handsets, etc).
- Customers only see apps that will work on their phone. At present the mobile app industry is not helped by confusing customers before they even make a sale - not everyone knows what their device can do.
- Quirks that make porting between devices hard (e.g. wierd handset bugs, or carrier specific changes) are documented well. T-mobile are probably already doing this and it would cut down development time for ISVs.
I don't think it'll be a failure: I think they've got a good shot with this. What this does, however, is silence critics of Apple's App Store plan. When other companies pick it up, it gives Apple credibility.