I would love to be wrong, but I think the vast majority of people with vaccine hesitancy will feel no different once non-emergency authorization is granted
I also don't totally agree that it's rational to hold out on vaccination due to blood clot concerns. From the stats I've seen, (even for young people) death from post-vax blood clots seems to be rarer than death from COVID. Although I suppose there's an element of "if everyone else gets vaccinated, maybe I don't need to". It would be ironic if that attitude means that, instead of being eradicated, COVID will be floating around for decades until those now young people become at-risk due to age.
Age is a risk factor. Many European countries recommend AZ only above age 50 (Britain above 30) because of the risk/reward profile.
Also, the Pandemrix history teaches us that although adverse effects manifest within 2 months, it can take over a year to figure out problems (spoiler: pandemrix was touted as safe including by Fauci but was associated with 5X increase in Narcolepsy, a deveatatig life altering disease. There is a suspected mechanism but no certainty, so you can’t even say “we incorporated the lessons from that”)
The problem with this angle is that, if antibodies to the spike protein cause an immune response related disorder... what do you think the virus will do? It presents many more (and likely much less stable/useful) immune response targets any number of which might cause life altering diseases, even in young people! The H1N1 disease would have almost certainly had similar effects on autoimmune disorders (as Pandemris) since it looks like this was a genetic predisposition.
There is a fundamental problem with all of the hesitancy/risk issues, which is that the risk of not being vaccinated is much higher, unless you can personally count on never getting exposed to the virus, which at this point (for people alive now) seems highly unlikely. The classic example is the blood disorders for J&J, which are about as risky as driving 20-100mi (depending on where). It's not that driving is so dangerous (it's certainly not perfectly safe), but that the issues are so rare, and the alternative is worse.
That’s making an awful lot of assumptions, and is contradicted by a counter example with Pandemrix.
There is no equivalence between naturally getting it and artificially getting it. Almost everything is different about the process.
And everything you say had been said about pandemrix at the time, including the chance of getting the disease vs the vaccine - and historically was wrong.
I also don't totally agree that it's rational to hold out on vaccination due to blood clot concerns. From the stats I've seen, (even for young people) death from post-vax blood clots seems to be rarer than death from COVID. Although I suppose there's an element of "if everyone else gets vaccinated, maybe I don't need to". It would be ironic if that attitude means that, instead of being eradicated, COVID will be floating around for decades until those now young people become at-risk due to age.