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> the break up of the United Kingdom

Wholly? Or just Scotland?

I can't see anyone else leaving, and I'm not sure the scots will either.




Scotland, and NI. Which are 2/3 of the constituent "kingdoms" that were united to form the "United Kingdom".

Of course, it might not happen, but odds are rather better, in both cases, than they were pre Brexit.

Ninja Edit: This isn't to try and minimise the importance of Wales, just a recognition that at the time of the creation of the UK, the famous Encyclopaedia Britannica entry (For Wales, see England) wouldn't have been controversial in most of the UK. But even in Wales, Plaid have done very well, and become much more radical, as a result of Brexit.


Nope, never. NI might want to leave, but it can't leave because its too dependant on the UK economically.


More so than Ireland was in 1921? And will that continue to be the case, with the NIP imposing barriers between it & GB?


I'm not sure, but given it came off the back of a war of independence (and became a civil war) it seems relative. I think the UK is in the better negotiation position, so I doubt there would be many concessions.

In any case, they'd have to adopt a hefty bill: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_fiscal_defici...


I think the biggest question mark is whether Westminster will allow an independence referendum. I don't think they will no matter what the results in the coming election are. However if they do, recall that questions over whether we'd be admitted to the EU was one of the big issues that tipped the balance in favour of "No" - the fact that this is now a non-issue could be pretty huge coupled with the fact that many feel deceived over the issue.

I honestly think I will see a united Ireland and an independent Scotland within my lifetime.




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