Right! I get it for the very high end chips used in CPUs and GPUs that are in demand for home computers and cryptocurrency mining are constrained by a very limited amount of fabs, but what is holding back the older process chips?
There's a confluence of things affecting the older-process, more commodity chips as well:
- Demand for electronics as a whole, at all scales (from computers to cars to IOT to industrial controls and all kinds of other things that we don't think about) has been shooting up for the last decade (without compensating expansion in fabrication capacity). This is the 3rd serious supply shortage we've seen in electronic components in the last few years (anyone else remember seeing MLCC lead times hit 100 weeks in 2017-2018?).
- All of these supply lines running all the way back to the raw silicon operate with very lean (or no) supply buffers. Think "suppliers making deliveries directly to the factory floor" lean. These sorts of systems are not resilient, and do not respond well to shocks (like suppliers having to shut down due to a global pandemic).
- As has been commonly noted, there have also been demand shocks, where electronics consumers (especially car companies) who are normally operating on timelines forecasting out 6-24 months forecast reduced customer demand, reflected that in their orders, and then had to adjust back when demand for cars came back.
- Similarly, with people locked down and working from home, demand for electronics both for professional use and as a replacement for entertainment options has expanded.
- Finally, there are rumors (that I haven't been able to confirm in a meaningful way) that some large Chinese manufacturers have been stockpiling components in anticipation of further tariffs, sanctions and trade tension.
> (anyone else remember seeing MLCC lead times hit 100 weeks in 2017-2018?).
I did, even Chinese domestic market still has months long passives shortages even today.
> - Finally, there are rumors (that I haven't been able to confirm in a meaningful way) that some large Chinese manufacturers have been stockpiling components in anticipation of further tariffs
Actually plain speculations, some times by people very far from semiconductors market, just like with masks, baby formula, apartments, pork, cement, aluminium, stocks etc.
> Actually plain speculations, some times by people very far from semiconductors market, just like with masks, baby formula, apartments, cement, aluminium, stocks etc.
