Is your argument that marginal cases would go to trial?
I think it is the case that marginal cases would take a no-jail plea bargain. Going to trial on a marginal case with a public defender probably increases the risk of imprisonment versus taking a guilty plea that guarantees no jail time (but a criminal record).
What I'm saying is that in a well run DA's office, a docket consisting mostly of cases that plead out is what you'd want to see, because the alternative suggests that prosecutors are bringing shaky cases to court, which they should not do, because prosecution itself inflicts grievous costs on defendants.
Sure, but that is indistinguishable in the numbers from an out of control law enforcement system where there is a high conviction rate against even the innocent that leads to higher incidence of innocent people making a guilty plea to avoid jail and expense. Of course, that percentage isn't broken out because everyone in here is innocent.
I think it is the case that marginal cases would take a no-jail plea bargain. Going to trial on a marginal case with a public defender probably increases the risk of imprisonment versus taking a guilty plea that guarantees no jail time (but a criminal record).