We always seem to look at tech as if it is a thing unto itself, instead of a catalyst and enabler. Every industry is transformed by technology, but it remains fundamentally about the same thing. There was still a transportation industry after the move from horses to cars, and there is still a music industry after the move from physical media to digital downloads. If you don't understand the industry you are in, it doesn't matter how good your technology is. That doesn't mean things need to be done in the same way. What is transformative about software eating the world is the ability to bring distribution costs to zero, enabling radically different models. Only a deep understanding of an industry allows for a successful technology transition.
For example, for me what is interesting about autonomous vehicles is not the convenience, but the transportation models enabled by a radically lower cost per travelled kilometer. Those who make the software for the autonomous vehicles will surely succeed, but so will those who understand what transportation models become possible using that software. I'm not sure whether being a car maker is an advantage or disadvantage, it depends on how well the car maker understands the transportation industry. For this reason I'm also not clear whether Tesla is relevant to the future of autonomous vehicles. It seems unlikely we're going to drive around in similar ways as today, just with a computer at the wheel. Tesla seems to be working towards improving today's model of car ownership and usage by making nicer cars. That's an old world model. Whatever the future of personal transportation is, it is not that.
This is why I think SpaceX and Starlink are bigger businesses than Tesla. I already have an electric car, and it’s made by Hyundai, and they’ve been better at making cars since Elon was is diapers. Tesla is a catalyst, not the final state of the system.
Those who can charge a toll on the network, though, are in a more interesting position. It’s not clear that anyone other than SpaceX is going to be able to build rockets cheap enough to maintain an Internet constellation any time soon. It’s certainly likely that others will try, but it’s possible that SpaceX will have the final word on cheap space flight, at least for a generation.
To the point of the article, the real beneficiaries will be those who understand the consequences of humanity now having the option to spread out at low density, and due to autonomous driving and global connectivity, not seeing a drop in the quality of physical and intellectual life.
Once you have the AI experience and expertise, and have the battery technology and the experience building factories at gigascale, you can easily pivot away from the sedan/suv form factor and build delivery vehicles or whatever makes sense in the future.
For example, for me what is interesting about autonomous vehicles is not the convenience, but the transportation models enabled by a radically lower cost per travelled kilometer. Those who make the software for the autonomous vehicles will surely succeed, but so will those who understand what transportation models become possible using that software. I'm not sure whether being a car maker is an advantage or disadvantage, it depends on how well the car maker understands the transportation industry. For this reason I'm also not clear whether Tesla is relevant to the future of autonomous vehicles. It seems unlikely we're going to drive around in similar ways as today, just with a computer at the wheel. Tesla seems to be working towards improving today's model of car ownership and usage by making nicer cars. That's an old world model. Whatever the future of personal transportation is, it is not that.