While I certainly agree that aggressive timelines often get modified, especially with new launch systems, initial estimates in 2016 were for first flight in 2020.[0] Then they pushed to 2021.[1] Additionally, the fact that they called out Q4 2022 (late in the year) doesn't give me a lot of confidence they'll even get it done in 2022 either.

[0]: https://www.geekwire.com/2016/jeff-bezos-lifts-curtain-blue-...

[1]: https://www.geekwire.com/2018/blue-origin-resets-schedule-fi...