While this is absolutely correct (Arizona state prisons are relatively famous for their minimum occupancy rates- Florence West, Phoenix West, and Marana Community Correctional Treatment Facility each have 100% minimum occupancy rates [1]), the one caveat I have to note is that private prisons in Arizona don't control, calculate, or have anything to do with awarding release credits and calculating release dates [2]. So, yes- you're completely right. Since they're in this situation where they get paid for 100% of their beds being filled even if they have 50%, 75%, even 97% capacity [3], the private company doesn't have much incentive to fudge release dates. Especially when the number of private bed contracts keep rising even though the total inmate population is decreasing [4].
However, by that same turn, it's been proven in court [3] that the state is on the hook for the minimum capacity % even when that capacity isn't met, and these contracts are fairly long (10 years + 2 renewable 5 year terms [5]). If the state is on the hook for up to 20 years of paying 100% to use 90% of something, there's a clear incentive to make a show of it being used.
So while there's no direct way for a private prison to fudge release date calculation, there's definitely no incentive for it to press the issue with the Department of Corrections considering the DoC could renegotiate the contract the following year [6]. As for the people in state office, it does not look or feel good to squander millions on an overestimation.
I'm not saying corruption is involved- all I'm saying is that there's certainly motive and opportunity for negligence.
However, by that same turn, it's been proven in court [3] that the state is on the hook for the minimum capacity % even when that capacity isn't met, and these contracts are fairly long (10 years + 2 renewable 5 year terms [5]). If the state is on the hook for up to 20 years of paying 100% to use 90% of something, there's a clear incentive to make a show of it being used.
So while there's no direct way for a private prison to fudge release date calculation, there's definitely no incentive for it to press the issue with the Department of Corrections considering the DoC could renegotiate the contract the following year [6]. As for the people in state office, it does not look or feel good to squander millions on an overestimation.
I'm not saying corruption is involved- all I'm saying is that there's certainly motive and opportunity for negligence.
Some sources for anyone interested:
[1] http://www.aublr.org/2017/11/private-prison-contracts-minimu... (look for source #14)
[2] A.R.S. 41-1609.01#P https://law.justia.com/codes/arizona/2011/title41/section41-...
[3] MTC vs ADC https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/news/2015/jul/31/report-find...
[4] https://kjzz.org/content/1647948/despite-declining-populatio...
[5] A.R.S. 41-1609.01#I,J https://law.justia.com/codes/arizona/2011/title41/section41-...
[6] A.R.S. 41-1609.01#C,D