I said that exact same thing, and passed on an offer from them- 4 years ago. I am not exactly kicking myself- at the time I was not an exercise bike enthusiast, and my few trips to Soul Cycle with my wife really turned me off- and regardless, I ended up landing a more lucrative role, even factoring in what stock grants would have been worth. About a year and a half ago, the wife bought a Peloton, and I rolled my eyes about our new expensive coat hanger, and I am currently on a 42 week streak.
I don't think you can pass this off as a fad- Soul Cycle first hit the scene around 2009, its still around- and they have just released a bike and service as well. Other look alikes have come on the market as well- Tonal and Mirror being the biggest. This is looking less like a fad and more like they were the leading edge of a smart exercise equipment industry.
Sure the specific piece of equipment that is in vogue might come and go, but I think Peloton is here to stay. This doesn't mean that gyms are going to close in the long run, but workout equipment as a service is a class of product that I feel is with us for the long haul.
Its success was mostly due to its novelty and exclusivity. After a while, copycats and their push for growth did them in.
Peloton is the same. They are first to market and have cultivated a level of exclusivity, but there is nothing unique about them that other businesses can’t copy over time (it’s already happening — most exercise companies now have their own Peloclones).
Interestingly, I have something of an inside view on this- my wife was one of the early enthusiasts, and I guess you could accuse her of being one of the "cliques" discussed- I have been to an instructor's house, a friend of ours is a publicist of sorts for someone prominently mentioned in the article, she will be in the wedding of someone she met at Soul that used to work the front desk (and I guess not coincidentally loves bright red lipstick) and would frequently have her bike moved to the front row.
She used to spend a jaw dropping amount on Soul- it was her favorite activity to take her clients to. Around the time they IPO'ed, she felt a change- the expansion took her favorite instructors out of her favorite studios, and often even out of the area as they helped open up locations in LA, Miami, etc. The new ones never had quite the same magnetism- which is of course subjective- most people have their personal favorites, and while there was some overlap, this could differ substantially from person to person. They used to give gifts to their top riders at the end of the year in the form of free classes, that went away, replaced with "charitable donations" and eventually just dropped altogether. Top instructors tried to branch out on their own, some successful, some not, but the point being is that really it was over expansion and IMHO brand dilution, which I guess you could call exclusivity (though I personally feel its a bit different than just exclusivity) that really sent them into a downward trajectory. She went from taking 4-5 classes a week, to mixing in Cycle Bar and other studios, to finally in October 2019 just deciding to get a Peloton.
All that said, they still had 1.62 million rides in 2019... which while down from ~1.8, that's not exactly a fad or a dead business- I actually thought their drop would be far bigger to be honest. Personally though I feel this was less of an effect of a fad, than the more typical story of the bean counters moving in and pursuing growth and next quarter's numbers at the cost of the quality of the brand.
To be honest that article was quite eye opening- I guess what I thought was a unique experience and fandom by my wife was something that the culture carefully cultivated.
I don't think you can pass this off as a fad- Soul Cycle first hit the scene around 2009, its still around- and they have just released a bike and service as well. Other look alikes have come on the market as well- Tonal and Mirror being the biggest. This is looking less like a fad and more like they were the leading edge of a smart exercise equipment industry.
Sure the specific piece of equipment that is in vogue might come and go, but I think Peloton is here to stay. This doesn't mean that gyms are going to close in the long run, but workout equipment as a service is a class of product that I feel is with us for the long haul.