Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

I know they were within the margin of error, but the polls were all systematically within the margin of error in the same direction. Did a single poll that was wrong predict at GOP win and end up a Democratic win?


That has happened in basically every election. Errors in polls tend to be correlated across states. If they were independent, 538 would have been predicting a ~0% chance of Trump winning instead of ~10%.


Yes.


I can’t find that via Google. Help me out here.


"poll predicted Trump win" brings back a number of results for me, including https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-202...


Ah sorry, I was thinking of down ballot races and polls that would have had enough reputation to make it into the Economist or 538 polling averages. I'll do some more searching.

The DI poll is basically a push poll with questions like "Who do you believe is telling the truth about alleged Biden family corruption?”

https://democracyinstitute.org/poll-donald-trump-set-to-win-...




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: