I’ve learned through many failed alarmism through history to generally take a conservative view on these matters.
The examples you provided with general human stupidity and disorder is a good one.
Another one, besides
The Singularity fluff, which is very much related to your own two and which we see often today, is with AI. You can also find other examples littered in the history of sci-fi literature, especially towards real life projections, not just fantasy.
My big less was that humans are naturally inclined to massive overestimated our ability to master these systems and are terrible at projecting how these systems will also be adopted and run (typically always assuming some masterfully run corporation or government full of geniuses).
The reality is almost always extremely more underwhelming.
Not to downplay the need for things like controls on privacy or surveillance.
But even something like the NSA is probably a good example. They are capable of so much with today’s technology and do in fact work very hard to have said genius’s work there. But I’m sure general bureaucracy and institutional incompetence has stopped many of our worst imagined fears from being realized on a wide (and therefore meaningful) scale.
This sort of thinking helps us become more practical in our projections and our handling or what is possible (and a counter to knee jerk reactions for hyper control through hyperbolic and extensive law - which we’ve seen frequently elsewhere in history places such as drug prohibition and race controls, where the controls cause far worse harm than any betterment).
I also think this is why older people tend to be more conservative in their expectations. Personal failures and learned education of those in history help push us in this direction. Unbridled optimism is for the youth. And I still think an important thing for society to move forward. As long as it’s not the only voice in the room, as it seems to always want to be.
The examples you provided with general human stupidity and disorder is a good one.
Another one, besides The Singularity fluff, which is very much related to your own two and which we see often today, is with AI. You can also find other examples littered in the history of sci-fi literature, especially towards real life projections, not just fantasy.
My big less was that humans are naturally inclined to massive overestimated our ability to master these systems and are terrible at projecting how these systems will also be adopted and run (typically always assuming some masterfully run corporation or government full of geniuses).
The reality is almost always extremely more underwhelming.
Not to downplay the need for things like controls on privacy or surveillance.
But even something like the NSA is probably a good example. They are capable of so much with today’s technology and do in fact work very hard to have said genius’s work there. But I’m sure general bureaucracy and institutional incompetence has stopped many of our worst imagined fears from being realized on a wide (and therefore meaningful) scale.
This sort of thinking helps us become more practical in our projections and our handling or what is possible (and a counter to knee jerk reactions for hyper control through hyperbolic and extensive law - which we’ve seen frequently elsewhere in history places such as drug prohibition and race controls, where the controls cause far worse harm than any betterment).
I also think this is why older people tend to be more conservative in their expectations. Personal failures and learned education of those in history help push us in this direction. Unbridled optimism is for the youth. And I still think an important thing for society to move forward. As long as it’s not the only voice in the room, as it seems to always want to be.