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...and then multiply that cost by the probability that this will happen to find the expected payoff. If the work costs substantially more than the payoff, don't bother. If substantially less, you're negligent if you don't do it. (The Learned Hand Rule http://aler.oxfordjournals.org/content/7/2/523.full)



And 6 months ago, what WAS your perceived probability that an entire AWS location would be down for several days?




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