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What makes the three doors Monty Hall so counterintuitive is that people tend to correctly reason about the case where the second door is randomly opened and don't understand why it doesn't apply.

I believe that this example makes understanding why people don't get it easier: you are looking for someone with one of your friend. You know they are in one of three rooms. Right before you can open the first one, your friend opens the second one and say: "not there". People assume the Monty Hall problem means that it's more likely your friend is in the third room and not the one you were going to open and think it's silly. And they are right to think that. What they don't get is that the case where your friend opened the correct door is part of the switching choice in the Monty Hall situation.




Your first paragraph looks very plausible, though I am not aware of any data saying it is a prevalent one. Are you suggesting that people still look at this problem as if the choice was random, even when they know it is not? (e.g., if they think the 'random' and 'chosen' cases are equivalent.) That is also plausible, but if it is common, that would imply that the phrasing of the problem is not the root cause of their misunderstanding of the optimal strategy.

Personally, IIRC, my first reaction was to assume the second box opening was not random (perhaps only because the question is not phrased as being conditional on this act revealing a goat) but did not see how this gave any useful information.

Here's another possible way of getting it wrong, regardless of the phrasing of the problem: assuming that, after the reveal (and whether one thinks of it as random or not), one is, as it were, starting over, except with a choice between two boxes rather than three, and no other information.




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