You can't assume that CA's action will exist in a vacuum. In the optimistic case this will help drive the rest of the country / world towards electric vehicles.

This isn't just optimistic thinking. A lot of the current American consumer laws, emissions standards etc. are de facto set by California rather than the Federal government.

That is more of a cost matrix, if CA demands a label on a product it is too costly to just make a CA only package so manufacturers will inform the entire nation that to the State of CA everything under the sun causes cancer....

However if you start outlawing entire segments of a product that does not mean that Ford is going to stop making Gas powered F150 that 49 other states Love, they will just stop selling them in CA and many CA Truck owners will drive to NV to buy one. I have a feeling the border will have a Nice Big Truck Dealership in short order

We already see that in some markets where for example my Tractor can not be sold in CA, but I bought it just fine in my state

Sure, we see that with stuff like tractors, lawn mowers, and occasionally motorcycles -- but 16 other states hopped on board with CA when it comes to passenger cars. "49 state cars" were commercially viable for a while, but I'm pretty sure that "34 state cars" don't exist...

16 other states are NOT on board with banning ICE vehicles, they have adopted CA's MPG and other emissions standards under the carve out that allows CA to set higher standards than the federal government. The only state that gets that authority, which itself should be repelled, either all states have the power or no state should, CA should not get a special carve out in the law

Yes, I know. The question proposed is whether California has enough influence to change that. Historically, it took about ~15 years for the rest of the country to fall in line with CA. I’m not suggesting they’ll adopt those standards now, but in 2050, maybe so.

Your point is sound, but don’t ignore the supply side. Manufacturers will produce more electric cars to satisfy the California market, driving down prices which will increase adoption elsewhere.

We’ve already seen this story. They make “compliance cars” that are sold (typically with a subsidy) and are impossible to get outside the target market. Now maybe California won’t actually allow IC vehicles in any shape or form and that will finally force hands. But I suspect that whatever is actually done will be watered down and have enough loopholes that it won’t.

When you only force a small number you get compliance cars. If they need to supply 40 million people you'll see real competition.

again, the spillover effects will be minimal because, unlike the CAFE standards for instance, this affects a relatively new subclass of vehicles, and the costs are not minimal for broad conformance. it will help move the US overall toward electric vehicles a little bit, but it won't lead to wholesale changes by itself.

Did not read all the comments, but it seems like many think California is first. This is not a symbolic act or something radical. This is joining in with the other countries and territories who have similar plans [0].

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

I missed it at first, but this is only new cars. Cars, especially in CA, can last for decades.

I would guess CA would still have a very large number of ICE vehicles in 2060 with this legislation.

The average age of a vehicle in California is ~12.5 years. So if they stopped selling ICE cars, within 5 years there would be 25% fewer cars on the road...

At that point, the profitability of owning a gas station would go way down and people would start finding better uses for the land. Within 10 years, gas stations would be driven out of bigger cities.

Now people get "range anxiety" thinking about buying EVs, but people can charge an EV cars at home. When gas stations get harder to find, the biggest advantage of owning an ICE car vanishes.

If (and it's a big if), you can't sell new ICE cars, they will be uncommon 10 years later. After 25 years (your 2060 number) it will be difficult to do a road trip without careful planning around for gas stops.

Median age of cars in the US is ~12 years, but has trended up since 1970 when it was ~6 years, which I assume is due to more reliable and durable vehicles.[1]

25% of cars are 16+ years old.[2] So by 2051, you'd expect 25% of cars to still be on the road.

For light trucks, the average age was 19 years old.[2]

[1]https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/21/average-age-of-cars-trucks... [2]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-...

How much quicker are those cars going to get retired out quicker when resale prices start dropping and gas prices start increasing so gas stations can stay profitable?

There is a whole economy around keeping ICE vehicles on the road. Without a constant supply of new ICE cars that economy gets trashed.

SF is a wealthy city, but drive around some of the low income neighborhoods and look at the cars. They are 15+ years old and will be driven until they no longer work. These folks can't afford a new ICE car, let alone a new EV car (they don't have garage to charge anyways). These folks will be buying the used ICE cars in 2035 and driving them for another 15 years.

There will be a big enough market for ICE cars and gasoline for a while.

No doubt we'll see ICE cars disappear, but I just don't think it will happen that quickly.

You are completely talking around my point.

Gas stations are already on decline in SF as more profitable businesses (and housing) find better uses for the land. If there are even 10% fewer gasoline cars cars on the road, that puts a huge dent in profitability those stations.

People may want gasoline cars, but owning one is going to be a hassle, particularly in places where real estate is at a premium.

> These folks can't afford a new ICE car, let alone a new EV car (they don't have garage to charge anyways).

The cost of EVs is coming down fast and will continue to decline. The cost of used EVs will also come down quickly, particularly since right now newer models are quite a bit better than EVs just a few years old.

> No doubt we'll see ICE cars disappear, but I just don't think it will happen that quickly.

"Quickly"?

There is nothing quick about it. We're talking about 25 years in the future as opposed to 50 years in the future. It's just your idea of cars driving around for a 15 years with no gas stations and increasingly hard to find mechanics that I question.

Yes. Some form of the Obama-era "cash for clunkers" will be required to get those off the road.

I hope a Rush fan in the legislature calls it the “Motor Law”

i wonder how much transportation & commercial emissions could be reduced solely by providing the right incentives for remote work & keeping non essential employees from driving to and from the city center everyday. covid already served as a model for this hopefully we can learn the right lessons. as a personal bias i'd like to see schools move in a similar direction as well towards more decentralized satellites with fewer students traveling less far from home. another elephant in the room (really it's a whole room full of elephants) is that cali's grid is already clearly beleaguered and not keeping up with demand so what does that mean when you have something like 20 million EVs that need to plug in every night?

Think of the California Consumer Privacy Act. It affected the whole country.

At least part of China's emissions is thanks to US consumers. Just because we moved the factories there doesn't mean that goes away.