In order to have a valid comparison you would have to adjust the numbers based on age demographics and prevalence of pre-existing conditions. Those factors have a huge impact on death rates.
While US federal and state government responses have been incompetent, there are other critical factors such as population density and cultural behaviors. So blaming everything on the government is a "god of the gaps" logical fallacy. And over time I expect death rates to roughly even out over the full span of the pandemic; unless a country can completely eradicate the virus and close their borders, public health measures only delay the deaths rather than preventing. Flattening the curve will only slightly decrease the total area under the curve.
Which is why I put the number at 50,000-150,000. I don't think we should have the exact rate as Germany, but I think it is obvious that demographics don't make up the entire difference between Germany and the US. You can see this by looking at the shape of the graphs for daily deaths. After the peak, the US has basically stuck somewhere between 20-40% of the its peak number. Most other countries were able to get their daily numbers down much further from their initial peak.
>And over time I expect death rates to roughly even out over the full span of the pandemic; unless a country can completely eradicate the virus and close their borders, public health measures only delay the deaths rather than preventing. Flattening the curve will only slightly decrease the total area under the curve.
What evidence is there for this? Which of our peer nations have had the sustained death or a secondary spike that would indicate that herd immunity is going to be the end result of this pandemic rather than societal change until a vaccine exists?
> Flattening the curve will only slightly decrease the total area under the curve.
I don't think that's true. Time delay has a number of actual long-term benefits. Hospitals are less likely to reach capacity. Better treatments can be developed. And, of course, eventually we'll have a vaccine.
While US federal and state government responses have been incompetent, there are other critical factors such as population density and cultural behaviors. So blaming everything on the government is a "god of the gaps" logical fallacy. And over time I expect death rates to roughly even out over the full span of the pandemic; unless a country can completely eradicate the virus and close their borders, public health measures only delay the deaths rather than preventing. Flattening the curve will only slightly decrease the total area under the curve.