In NYC, there were 358 hospitalizations and rising on 3/17, and 8 deaths. On 3/31, there were 383 daily deaths and rising. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Deaths in Texas have been trending upwards since June. https://www.us-covid-tracker.com/?field=newDeaths&state=Texa...

Of course, there's no guarantee that the course of the epidemic in Texas will look like New York City's. But a sharp rise in hospitalizations does seem to presage a lot of deaths.