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1999-2019 is not the interesting period of automation. I'm surprised the authors think it's even relevant. 2020-2040 will be the period to watch.



1999-2019 has created massive technological capability for automation, which has been significantly underutilized mostly due to the rapid progress of globalization and offshoring of labor.

2020-2040 could have massive automation just with today's tech as soon as it's economically worthwhile - i.e. if you're not competing with workers who'll slave all day in dangerous conditions for peanuts. In 2000, we couldn't automate many jobs, in 2020 we choose not to automate them.


Except the spirit of this statement was being expressed in 2000, as well, on mailing lists and usenet of the day.


Sure, but I doubt they gave firm timelines. Future projections are always murky, but it seems pretty clear that the tech is in a much better spot and the incentives are now stronger than ever. Human workers get sick and can't work? Automate them away!




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