> Suggesting the virus was circulating in China as early as August but was being covered up?
It's a well established fact that the existence of the virus was initially being covered up and local doctors trying to raise the alarm were being silenced. Even mainland Chinese know this (and are angry with the authorities). One of those doctors was Li Wenliang who has become somewhat of a national hero after his death to covid[1]. Him and dozens of others were given a very stern warning to stop talking about the possibility of a new disease outbreak in the weeks prior to covid becoming official when overwhelming evidence made it no longer possible to sweep under the rug.
The only angle here is that the time when the outbreak began is earlier than thought. This isn't even related to the notion of any coverup. It could have been circulating for months in low volumes without anyone really paying attention. Until the outbreak reaches critical mass, all you'll get is micro clusters which appear and disappear without really blowing up - as we're now seeing in countries that got their first wave under control.
The fact that people here still think that the initial coverup is some sort of conspiracy theory, when it's common knowledge even in China, is a bit mind blowing.
I call this intelligentsia-baiting. Where one needs to educate others parroting insights(/memes) from coastal-elite-marking editorials without reading primary sources.
Li Wenliang was neither a whistleblower nor did he have any first-hand novel data to share. He, an ophthalmologist, received a private group message within the hospital from ER department director and he simply re-shared the message to other private groups with his classmates.
The ER director, Ai Fen, was the source of the hypothesis that some patients in the hospital had, incorrectly, SARS and she was the right channel to escalate in the first place. And her escalation was successful when 1 nurse was observed to have been infected on January 11th.
Li never intended to broadcast anything to the public. What he did privately share was far less detailed than was on the official Wuhan government site [1], the Hubei provincial site [2] and just general mainstream social media [3] from the same date anyway.
That “only angle” is precisely the problem, as the parent commenter explains quite clearly. It makes sense that some doctors could be briefly silenced for a few weeks at the very beginning of a large virus outbreak (but as we saw, even that apparently attempt to silence failed). It doesn’t make sense that a virus with these characteristics could be covered up for many months without even international travel restrictions.
But err, that's exactly what's happened. We now know that China locked down domestic flights originating from Wuhan in Jan 23. While at the same time pressuring various world governments and WHO to continue accepting international flights.
I feel like this needs to be unpacked for a lot of people. There are two pieces:
1: This paper claims that the virus was circulating in micro-clusters earlier than currently believed. It makes no claims as to any coverup.
2: There is clear evidence of an aggressive coverup lasting at least several weeks prior to covid becoming official. This makes no claims as to when the virus started circulating. Only when the authorities became aware of it.
These two statements are unrelated. The root parent post poisoned the well by conflating them. This paper is just another step towards tracking down the origin of the virus, it has nothing to do with coverups - whether real or conspiracy theory.
> We now know that China locked down domestic flights originating from Wuhan in Jan 23. While at the same time pressuring various world governments and WHO to continue accepting international flights.
As someone else pointed out, this is not a “now know”, it was public the same day in January that it happened.
> 1: This paper claims that the virus was circulating in micro-clusters earlier than currently believed. It makes no claims as to any coverup.
If the virus were circulating to the point of significantly increasing hospital visits in September, that means the Chinese doctors were covering up/hiding atypical pneumonia cases for months. (This doesn’t actually make sense because a virus doesn’t stop spreading because of a cover-up of course and would have escaped Wuhan much earlier)
> We now know that China locked down domestic flights originating from Wuhan in Jan 23.
They locked down all flights originating from Wuhan. In fact, they completely shut down the airport.
The incorrect claim that international flights continued was invented by Niall Ferguson of the Hoover Institution, and then spread uncritically by various news media, as detailed in The Independent: https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-independent-1029/20200607...
As far as I can tell, the root parent tried to address the various posts here, but mostly on other (social media) sites that immediately jump to the conclusion that do connect 1 and 2. That this was indeed covered up for months, and that this was all planned by China to hurt the west, and whatnot. I see this a lot. It's like we desperately need to focus on things in other countries that are even worse than all the issues we have here. Too bad that stupid cop killed that black guy, ruined the party and shifted our attention back.
A rational discourse backed by data is way more useful than meaningless comments trying to fan the flames. I'd recommend having another HN thread if you'd really want to have this discussion, and I will happily participate.
The lockdown happened in Jan 20, and it is public. Not 'we now know', it is 'we knew'. What's wrong with "pressuring various world governments and WHO to continue accepting international flights"? Did any country during this crisis prevent their own people from going out except Wuhan China? Did countries stop receiving European and American when there are cases in those countries?
I like how you generalize everything as 'well established fact', 'even mainland Chinese know', 'common knowledge'. And yes, I don't think there are initial coverup, and the world has both underestimated and overestimated the virus. Try to analyze how guardian covers the virus over a time, you will understand how journalism work in a modern age.
It's a well established fact that the existence of the virus was initially being covered up and local doctors trying to raise the alarm were being silenced. Even mainland Chinese know this (and are angry with the authorities). One of those doctors was Li Wenliang who has become somewhat of a national hero after his death to covid[1]. Him and dozens of others were given a very stern warning to stop talking about the possibility of a new disease outbreak in the weeks prior to covid becoming official when overwhelming evidence made it no longer possible to sweep under the rug.
The only angle here is that the time when the outbreak began is earlier than thought. This isn't even related to the notion of any coverup. It could have been circulating for months in low volumes without anyone really paying attention. Until the outbreak reaches critical mass, all you'll get is micro clusters which appear and disappear without really blowing up - as we're now seeing in countries that got their first wave under control.
The fact that people here still think that the initial coverup is some sort of conspiracy theory, when it's common knowledge even in China, is a bit mind blowing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/chinese-inquir...