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Wait, are you trying persuade us with facts?

Airplanes are the safest way to travel by far. That doesn't prevent people from stubbornly refusing to fly (taking very unsafe road trips instead), it doesn't prevent panic attacks in the air, and it doesn't stop governments wasting billions on security checkpoint theater.

God speed, my friend, I sincerely hope the facts will make a difference.




Airplanes are the safest way to travel by far

Yes and no. That depends on how you measure. The typical statistic used (deaths per man-kilometer) favors flying a bit.

For example, the space shuttle is safe, according to that metric (guesstimate: 60 shuttle flights for every crash => over a year in space for every crash, 16 times round earth a day => 60000 revolutions * 40k km => 2*10^9 man km per death)

According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_safety#Statistics making one plane ride is riskier than taking a bus once.

Moreover, taking of and landing are the high-risk parts of flying. So, I would expect that flying would score worse than that when people starte making shorter flights.


I redo the space shuttle risk using the data from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_shuttle_missions#...

  Total Orbits: ~20K
  Orbits Length: ~40K Km
  Crashes: 2
  (Assuming same number of crew in each flight.)
  Risk: 20K * 40K Km / 2 = 4*10^8 man Km per death
  Or: 2.5 deaths / billon Km 
So using the Risk/Km criteria the space shuttle is as safe as (water)ships, safer than cars and riskier than trains.




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