Well SWEs are plain old labor and they’re compensated as such because big tech (and startups) recognize the value provided by productive SWEs. They wouldn’t be paying those astronomical wages unless the returns were about as high. I don’t think anyone is rationalizing that it’s not labor; it’s well compensated labor. The current high compensation was driven by the market: senior engineers get poached by startups with similar base pay but higher equity, so FAANGs raced to match that. Keep in mind that some of the FAANGs themselves were startups not that long ago and used similar tactics to poach labor from other firms.
To address what you’re really getting at though: tech comp could absolutely take a hit if there is depression that hollows out demand for technology based products. It could happen if the unemployment persists for too long or if the Government stops providing Unemployment benefits. Remains to be seen.
No one is arguing that SWEs aren't compensated fairly for the value they produce. What GP is pointing out is that labor in general is not compensated at equal to the value they provide (pretty much by definition), in part because most labor is more easily replaced in a more competitive market. GP's point is that this is just SWE's first taste of the problem that the majority of labor faces.
To address what you’re really getting at though: tech comp could absolutely take a hit if there is depression that hollows out demand for technology based products. It could happen if the unemployment persists for too long or if the Government stops providing Unemployment benefits. Remains to be seen.