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Well the flame is saying it's a misunderstanding of the difference between data smoothing and model-based forecasting.

To which I'd say that just begs the question of if there's a difference to begin with, and what criteria you would use to distinguish them if they are.



To begin, if the curve doesn't extend into the future, it can't forecast anything.


Of course there's a difference between smoothing and forecasting. It's the difference between interpolation and extrapolation.

But I can't figure out what anyone in the original discussion is really saying, if anything.




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