> Worst case, you spend ~2 years and get out with a MS degree.
I wouldn't bet on that and it's rarely that clean. I think a very common story with PhDs is:
1) after a year or so you have huge doubts you're going to finish
2) you consider quitting but don't want it to look bad on your resume, you don't want to be seen as a quitter, you don't want to let people down, you don't want the money you've spent so far to be for nothing, you know if you give up now you'll never be able to try again etc.
3) you hope it'll get better and push on.
This problem then compounds itself year after year as 2 becomes a increasingly weightier issue and sunk cost fallacy takes over.
I wouldn't bet on that and it's rarely that clean. I think a very common story with PhDs is:
1) after a year or so you have huge doubts you're going to finish
2) you consider quitting but don't want it to look bad on your resume, you don't want to be seen as a quitter, you don't want to let people down, you don't want the money you've spent so far to be for nothing, you know if you give up now you'll never be able to try again etc.
3) you hope it'll get better and push on.
This problem then compounds itself year after year as 2 becomes a increasingly weightier issue and sunk cost fallacy takes over.