Keybase helped me to identify a trend in the software industry: using a pretty UI to cover up the disruption of an open ecosystem with a closed, centralized replacement. Keybase seemed cool on the face of it - making encryption easier is a laudible goal, and PGP certainly could use the improvement. But, thanks to Keybase, now I ask different questions upfront. Beware the Keybase formula:
1. Integrates with an existing, open ecosystem
2. May have open-source clients, but server is closed source and does not federate
I don't know how many people here remember the excitement when Android was new and, OMG, it's Linux! Open source! Finally we have a Linux-based, free and open phone platform!
I actually think that this played a non-trivial part in Android getting early traction - similar dynamic to Gmail where tech people got excited about it eventually "my friend who's good with computers recommends this" becomes a factor.
Not the exact same formula as you formulate above, but I think there are parallels to draw.
I was very excited about first reports on Android. I was young, starting to earn my first money, and I wanted to spend that money by getting myself my first, awesome, Linux-powered smartphone by Google - a company I heard only good things about.
Fortunately, I've decided to go with Openmoko instead back then. I'm so glad I did.
Same happened with Telegram: from a crypto messenger for geeks (who were excited by new crypto – I know, I know – and promises of end-to-end encryption everywhere coming some day) to just another messenger with cool stickers and stuff.
Really sad because I personally recommended it too, and was hoping these things would work out somehow. Lesson learned: they don't. The next messenger I will promote with my friends would be one without the server at all.
Keybase packed together many different technologies in one place. I don't think any of us who moved to Keybase had delusions that it would be around forever. But it's an amazingly comprehensive suite for its small scope and the open source product that replaces it will only exist because Keybase existed.
If the writing is placed on the wall (the marker cap is open right now) then replacing each of Keybase's features with existing technologies won't be difficult -- just time consuming, which is why they have market fit.
Each of us using Keybase saw the potential for the tech. We supported and evangelized Keybase because we wanted to see a world where the workflows enabled by Keybase were more common. There were no false pretenses: Keybase was openly flailing about for a revenue model, and the client was made open-source as a display of goodwill so that leaving would not be impossible.
If Keybase completely shuts down, I have hopes the team will be able to convince Zoom to let them pack up and release parts of the server code not being shared with Zoom's products.
on the other hand, it was actually usable by somebody who isn't a privacy advocate.
the trend exists because "pretty UIs" and usability are actually valuable features to users, and the existing open ecosystems tend to fail at that aspect.
https://protonmail.com/about indicates they're funded to some extent by Charles River Ventures (https://www.crv.com/). They were initially crowdfunded, and also get funding from a Swiss nonprofit foundation.
1. Integrates with an existing, open ecosystem
2. May have open-source clients, but server is closed source and does not federate
3. Pretty UI and good marketing
4. VC funded