"... I remember seeing a comment by pg that if he really thought there was a bubble and was cynically exploiting that fact, he just wouldn't say anything at all. ..."
That was probably straight out of "How to Win Friends and Influence People". If there is a bubble, what you see is large transfers of money flow from people who want to risk capital to make profit. Does Milner, DST really understand "social media"? Probably not. There was a dig by Annie Lowrey a writing an article on Warren Buffet buying into railways in Slate that hints at this [0]. Is this a wise move by YCombinator? In the short term yes. In the longer term I'm not so sure. Why? If you want to understand the nature of an investor, follow the source and providence of the cash.
Yuri Milner > DST > Alisher Usmanov
The Milner investment trail leads straight back to Uzbeck Russia and old-school Oligarchy, something the Economist has noted. [1] Randomness didn't play a part in the success of DST as a company. [2] I can't believe pg isn't aware of this [3] and if you look carefully, the Milner deal is at arms-length of ycombinator. A deal good for all parties at the expense of appearing "murky".
[0] Annie Lowrey, Slate, "Working on the Railroad: All the big returns were in Singapore or Hong Kong or Silicon Valley, they said, so they put their money into hot social-media start-ups and emerging economies." ~ http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2277702
[2] "According to the 2010 edition of Forbes magazine, the oligarch is one of Russia's richest men, with a fortune estimated at US$19.9 billion, and the world's 100th richest person." ~ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alisher_Usmanov
[3] "There are a lot of ways to get rich... There are plenty of other ways to get money, including chance, speculation, marriage, inheritance, theft, extortion, fraud, monopoly, graft, lobbying, counterfeiting, and prospecting. Most of the greatest fortunes have probably involved several of these." ~ http://paulgraham.com/wealth.html
That was probably straight out of "How to Win Friends and Influence People". If there is a bubble, what you see is large transfers of money flow from people who want to risk capital to make profit. Does Milner, DST really understand "social media"? Probably not. There was a dig by Annie Lowrey a writing an article on Warren Buffet buying into railways in Slate that hints at this [0]. Is this a wise move by YCombinator? In the short term yes. In the longer term I'm not so sure. Why? If you want to understand the nature of an investor, follow the source and providence of the cash.
The Milner investment trail leads straight back to Uzbeck Russia and old-school Oligarchy, something the Economist has noted. [1] Randomness didn't play a part in the success of DST as a company. [2] I can't believe pg isn't aware of this [3] and if you look carefully, the Milner deal is at arms-length of ycombinator. A deal good for all parties at the expense of appearing "murky".[0] Annie Lowrey, Slate, "Working on the Railroad: All the big returns were in Singapore or Hong Kong or Silicon Valley, they said, so they put their money into hot social-media start-ups and emerging economies." ~ http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2277702
[1] "A bigger problem for DST may be that some see it as Russian—and thus “murky”." ~ http://www.economist.com/node/16539424?story_id=16539424
[2] "According to the 2010 edition of Forbes magazine, the oligarch is one of Russia's richest men, with a fortune estimated at US$19.9 billion, and the world's 100th richest person." ~ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alisher_Usmanov
[3] "There are a lot of ways to get rich... There are plenty of other ways to get money, including chance, speculation, marriage, inheritance, theft, extortion, fraud, monopoly, graft, lobbying, counterfeiting, and prospecting. Most of the greatest fortunes have probably involved several of these." ~ http://paulgraham.com/wealth.html