Being "prepared for black swans" is a bad idea. Of course, you want your system as a whole to be as antifragile as possible, but one should never prepare for black swans, but rather buy insurance (so to speak): hedge, diversify, minimize impact. For example, we can imagine a world where some other pandemic is being spread. One that, instead of attacking the lungs, attacks the kidneys. All of a sudden we'd need dialysis machines -- not ventilators. See how preparing for some specific black swan is misguided (as we can be hit by any other, equally unlikely, black swan event)?
> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population.
Okay, this sounds like an interesting assertion. Can we back this up? Is this just alarmism? Where's the data?
> Yes, $300 million dollars for a stockpile of 30 HV transformers is far too expensive to prevent 90% of the public dying and the rest reduced to cannibalism.
I see. So now we're assuming some off-the-charts assertion, which is dubious at best[1], is absolutely true. The cannibalism is thrown in for extra flair. Gotta' get them clicks somehow.
> Update: I forget to mention that I’m far more worried about accidental nuclear war, bioterrorism and AI run amok than I am about solar flares.
Anyone that's seriously worried about "AI run amok" (whatever that means) doesn't understand the first thing about AI.
Investing a nominal amount in strategic backup equipment that you might never need is hedging.
An event that has a low probability of occurring but that (if it occurs) will be highly catastrophic is exactly the scenario that calls for hedging. Most critical systems have already diversified by building in redundancies (generators) and an insurance check wouldn’t be very useful for keeping the rest of us alive.
> an insurance check wouldn’t be very useful for keeping the rest of us alive
True. I meant "insurance" in the general sense (clarified my post). Insurance can be any number of things, as you mention, including hedging and diversification.
> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population.
Okay, this sounds like an interesting assertion. Can we back this up? Is this just alarmism? Where's the data?
> Yes, $300 million dollars for a stockpile of 30 HV transformers is far too expensive to prevent 90% of the public dying and the rest reduced to cannibalism.
I see. So now we're assuming some off-the-charts assertion, which is dubious at best[1], is absolutely true. The cannibalism is thrown in for extra flair. Gotta' get them clicks somehow.
> Update: I forget to mention that I’m far more worried about accidental nuclear war, bioterrorism and AI run amok than I am about solar flares.
Anyone that's seriously worried about "AI run amok" (whatever that means) doesn't understand the first thing about AI.
[1] https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a25883/nor...