I really hate the dealer game, but if you're stubborn and persistent you can often get what you want. It sounds like the best approach is to email multiple dealerships and make it clear you're only coming in after you commit to a price--you just can't overplay your hand. I bought a new Fit a few years ago when they shifted production between countries and kind of skipped a model year. So there was a shortage, especially the 6-speed low end. When I located one I didn't have much leverage to negotiate down, but I could stand firm on extra junk they tried to add to drive up the cost.

The used car market used to be fantastic before the 2009 Cash For Clunkers system seemed to have skewed it. It doesn't look like it has "recovered" but that could be due to other factors like better reliability overall. I mostly used a new car as a worst reasonable case scenario where the price doesn't fluctuate.