> If our goal is to flatten the curve to slightly below hospital capacity, current policy has flattened the curve way too much.
Our goal is to simply avoid hospitals becoming inundated. How would it be possible to flatten the curve to "slightly below hospital capacity"? To do that we would need to know exact numbers on hospitalization rates from infections, have a testing capability that is far beyond what we currently can do, and then we would need to have fine-tuned control on peoples' behaviors and also never be wrong. We have too much ignorance about too many things to do this in a way that you would deem optimal. This is a disease that takes a median of 5 days to incubate, so as soon as we get something wrong (hint: we will get it wrong), it festers for 5 entire days before we know it, and then we're stuck with the consequences. The only rational choice is to take severe action and hope it's enough. It wasn't enough in Italy, it wasn't enough in NYC.
If you're saying that social distancing/lockdown policies are an "overreaction" because we still have ICU beds and ventilators, I think that's a pretty good sign. The entire point is to do something drastic now, and gradually ease distancing measures as it becomes safe to do so without causing additional large-scale outbreaks. As soon as we have the ability to contact-trace all new infections and can successfully contain outbreaks, we can start letting up.
Our goal is to simply avoid hospitals becoming inundated. How would it be possible to flatten the curve to "slightly below hospital capacity"? To do that we would need to know exact numbers on hospitalization rates from infections, have a testing capability that is far beyond what we currently can do, and then we would need to have fine-tuned control on peoples' behaviors and also never be wrong. We have too much ignorance about too many things to do this in a way that you would deem optimal. This is a disease that takes a median of 5 days to incubate, so as soon as we get something wrong (hint: we will get it wrong), it festers for 5 entire days before we know it, and then we're stuck with the consequences. The only rational choice is to take severe action and hope it's enough. It wasn't enough in Italy, it wasn't enough in NYC.
If you're saying that social distancing/lockdown policies are an "overreaction" because we still have ICU beds and ventilators, I think that's a pretty good sign. The entire point is to do something drastic now, and gradually ease distancing measures as it becomes safe to do so without causing additional large-scale outbreaks. As soon as we have the ability to contact-trace all new infections and can successfully contain outbreaks, we can start letting up.