There is under-reporting that's for sure, but there is also a delay in all-cause mortality. In some cases, the same country both over and under reports. To be honest, I am surprised to see such a close match. I expected similar numbers, but this is within ~10%, which I suspect is a coincidence. But still, that's interesting.
Another coincidence is that the country that is most suspected of under-reporting, Germany, is also the least represented in EuroMOMO. There is data for only 2 regions.
Italy, Spain and France, the most significant contributors both in COVID-19 related deaths and excess mortality in general, all count deaths in care facilities now. I don't know about the UK though. Deaths at home are probably not counted, but according to the authorities, they are a minority: COVID-19 does not happen suddenly and people normally have time to go to the hospital. Still significant though.
My gut feeling is that there are actually ~50% more deaths than reported. But we'll have to wait for at least a few months to get proper statistics.
Another coincidence is that the country that is most suspected of under-reporting, Germany, is also the least represented in EuroMOMO. There is data for only 2 regions.
Italy, Spain and France, the most significant contributors both in COVID-19 related deaths and excess mortality in general, all count deaths in care facilities now. I don't know about the UK though. Deaths at home are probably not counted, but according to the authorities, they are a minority: COVID-19 does not happen suddenly and people normally have time to go to the hospital. Still significant though.
My gut feeling is that there are actually ~50% more deaths than reported. But we'll have to wait for at least a few months to get proper statistics.