I don't think anyone is moving goalposts. Most of the antibody studies that have come out have had serious flaws either with the tests themselves or the sampling. The recent NY one was ok, but still had sampling issues because it only sampled people who were out and about during a lockdown. I would expect those people to have a higher prevalence of exposure.
With that said, the extrapolated numbers for NY do fall in line with the original IFR of .5-1% The downside is that if that is the IFR then the US is looking at 1.6-3.3M deaths assuming hospital systems can keep up as the infection spreads.
Edit. It's also important to talk about infection counts (what antibody tests are looking for) and case counts (people who show symptoms and end up seeking medical care). In the past when people were saying it's just the flu they were comparing COVID-19 IFR to the flus CFR.
With that said, the extrapolated numbers for NY do fall in line with the original IFR of .5-1% The downside is that if that is the IFR then the US is looking at 1.6-3.3M deaths assuming hospital systems can keep up as the infection spreads.
Edit. It's also important to talk about infection counts (what antibody tests are looking for) and case counts (people who show symptoms and end up seeking medical care). In the past when people were saying it's just the flu they were comparing COVID-19 IFR to the flus CFR.