> Finally, please stop referring to what's going on as "panic". All things considered, most people have been remarkably calm. The only ones panicking seem to be the crazy attention-seekers blocking traffic.
Stopping the world is the panic button. 100% of the news cycle devoted to coverage. All schools shut down. It can be justified or unjustified but I think it's a stretch to call it anything but panic. I'd say the only ones who aren't panicking are the Swedes. A bold strategy, cotton, let's see if it pays off.
> For anybody else reading that's unaware: Sweden is still in the earlier stages of growth, not yet peaking in total cases [1].
Not really, they seem to have leveled off alongside Canada, the US and the UK. [1] In fact, your own link says as much, the number of daily new cases in your link has been constant for at least a week.
> ...but they already have 6x the per-capita death rate of either of their neighbors, Norway or Finland, and 50% higher than the per-capita rate in the US.
Obviously, that's because they're not locked down. I assume they have 6X the per-capita flu death rate of Norway and Finland too. Car accident deaths, also. That doesn't mean much, it's a different strategy.
> If the US followed the Swedish model, we'd need, conservatively, another 25,000 body bags. Probably a lot more than that given other comparative differences between the two countries.
The thesis is that the delta between deaths is temporary. That as soon as the major countries open back up, the deaths will resume and so it represents just a temporary deferral of deaths not a net increase. The reality is epidemiologists predict 70% of us are going to get COVID this year, and with COVID as infectious as it is, and without us being able to sit inside until literally every last COVID virus dissipates, it'll be back as soon as we open up.
Please don't cross into personal attack, no matter how wrong another commenter is or you feel they are. It makes the thread strictly worse, and you can make your substantive points without that.
I'm out of ideas for countering this particular argument which has been coming up on HN on almost every virus-related thread recently. Ignoring it doesn't make it sound less convincing and engaging it just results in hopelessly-long back-and-forth citefests between two sides that cannot be convinced by anything the other says. I'm open to other suggestions at the email address in my profile.
This might be a "no right answer" situation honestly, I'm here to challenge my own opinions -- so your thoughts, opinions and data are always welcome and appreciated.
Stopping the world is the panic button. 100% of the news cycle devoted to coverage. All schools shut down. It can be justified or unjustified but I think it's a stretch to call it anything but panic. I'd say the only ones who aren't panicking are the Swedes. A bold strategy, cotton, let's see if it pays off.