I generally agree with this assessment, but it's not certain the U.S. is choosing option 3.
How do we assess contingency levels, other than after-the-fact measure of fatalities? Contingency is highly variable across the country. Rural areas have a lot of personal distancing built in. Urban areas certainly aren't in China-style lockdown, or South Korea-style technology+culture distancing based on prior experience. Nationally, I think the U.S. is at best taking a "moderate contingency" approach.
Each state's governor has control over the contingency, short of the president declaring martial law. e.g. in Mississippi the governor has declared most businesses are "essential" and thus open for business, expressly contradicting local ordinances more strictly defining what is essential. We very likely will see localized variations in infection and fatality rates as a result of these variations.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-mississippi-gove...
Therefore I don't know whether the progression of the disease is even predictable.
How do we assess contingency levels, other than after-the-fact measure of fatalities? Contingency is highly variable across the country. Rural areas have a lot of personal distancing built in. Urban areas certainly aren't in China-style lockdown, or South Korea-style technology+culture distancing based on prior experience. Nationally, I think the U.S. is at best taking a "moderate contingency" approach.
Each state's governor has control over the contingency, short of the president declaring martial law. e.g. in Mississippi the governor has declared most businesses are "essential" and thus open for business, expressly contradicting local ordinances more strictly defining what is essential. We very likely will see localized variations in infection and fatality rates as a result of these variations. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-mississippi-gove...
Therefore I don't know whether the progression of the disease is even predictable.