We won't know until we see standardized testing for this cohort. Which won't be until next year.
I suspect kids of wealthy, educated parents will actually excel. Those parents will learn that they could can actually do better than schools on the pure academics.
Unfortunately, I suspect kids of poorer parents will really slow down.
But, yes, I think we're about to unbundle a lot of education.
They’re canceling standardized testing here. There’s not much point if you know it’s gonna be bad compared to other years, and there’s little you can learn from the details of the failure to apply to the next years. They already know “have a better quarantine plan” is he answer for this time (though arguably uncommon enough that the right amount of time and money to spend fixing it is zero). No need to test, and anyway they may not be back in classrooms to do it.
[edit] though yeah, future years’ testing may tell us something. However, since it’s happening to all grades, and given how often other factors change that make results incommensurate, it’ll be tough to pull anything useful out of the numbers.
I don't know about unbundling. But it wouldn't be a surprise if at least relatively motivated students being individually homeschooled for a while--even given remote work challenges--by wealthy, educated parents did pretty well. (Whether or not on standardized tests is perhaps less certain.) Whereas kids in less good home environments aren't likely to.
Schools are providing bundles of tools: computers, textbooks, teaching, videos, testing, classrooms, group work, childcare, 'nutrition services,' libraries, etc.
The crisis takes away the classrooms and exposes the tools to parents. And for some people the classroom made little difference, or held them back.
By fall, I think you'll have people asking whether school boards shouldn't just offer the tools. Let people pick and choose their own arrangement of teaching, video, testing and groupwork. (This would let wealthier parents recover some of the amount spent on unproductive childcare, and put it into learning and socialization.)
I suspect kids of wealthy, educated parents will actually excel. Those parents will learn that they could can actually do better than schools on the pure academics.
Unfortunately, I suspect kids of poorer parents will really slow down.
But, yes, I think we're about to unbundle a lot of education.